Forward Original Title ‘Hotcoin Research | Analyzing On-Chain Fund Movements: Whales Continue to Accumulate BTC in April, Is BTC’s Bottoming Process Complete?’

I. Introduction

In April 2025, the Bitcoin market saw significant volatility. Following a high-level pullback at the end of Q1, influenced by U.S. tariff policies, Bitcoin’s price briefly fell below $75,000, causing market panic. However, it’s noteworthy that whales consistently bought large amounts of BTC at lower prices, unlike the massive sell-offs seen in past bear markets. At the same time, traditional financial institutions are increasingly embracing Bitcoin, with several either boosting their holdings or investing in BTC for the first time.

This article assesses whether Bitcoin’s bottoming process is complete by analyzing the increase in BTC holdings among on-chain large holders and traditional financial institutions, along with the relationship between on-chain fund flows and BTC price trends. It offers a deep dive into multiple on-chain indicators to evaluate market trends, considering the macroeconomic environment and policy impacts on market sentiment and fund flows.

II. Whale Address Fund Movements

Starting in March, Bitcoin whale addresses have shown a clear pattern of buying at lower prices, with whales taking advantage of the price pullback to significantly boost their holdings. Bitcoin is moving from exchanges and retail investors to whale wallets. The chart below compares the total balance changes of large holders with 1,000 to 10,000 BTC (purple line) and Bitcoin prices (black line) from 2024 to 2025. It shows that as prices fell, the total balance of whales rose significantly from March to April, indicating accumulation.

Source: https://www.mitrade.com/

According to data from CryptoQuant analyst caueconomy, whale wallets increased their holdings by more than 100,000 BTC during this period. Even with relatively low overall network activity and retail investors on the sidelines, whales continued to buy systematically. This trend has pushed the total holdings of whales (large holders with 1,000 to 10,000 BTC) to over 3.35 million BTC, marking a new phase high. Whales’ counter-cyclical buying is often seen as a potential signal of market bottoming.

In terms of specific fund movements, on-chain transaction tracking accounts like Whale Alert and Lookonchain frequently recorded large transfers and balance changes by whales in April. On April 11, over $2.4 billion worth of BTC was withdrawn from the U.S. exchange Kraken, showing large investors pulling their holdings from exchanges for long-term self-custody. Another whale activity noted was “large new wallet accumulation.” In late March, a billionaire-level Bitcoin whale purchased 3,238 BTC within 24 hours, valued at about $280 million, at an average price of $86,500. Over the past month, several large BTC transfers to cold wallets have been recorded on-chain, totaling more than 50,000 BTC withdrawn and stored offline by major investors, indicating strategic accumulation during price dips.

Overall, the fund movements of whale addresses in April exhibited a “net inflow accumulation” pattern: a significant amount of BTC left exchanges for long-term holding wallets; whale holdings increased with almost no signs of panic selling. Instead, whales opted to increase their holdings during this approximately 30% price pullback, suggesting confidence that the current adjustment is a temporary retreat rather than a trend reversal.

III. Institutional Fund Movements

Bitcoin is increasingly seen as digital gold and a hedge against inflation, prompting more traditional institutions to hold it. According to BitcoinTreasuries, over 80 companies currently hold Bitcoin, though this is not a complete list.

Source: https://treasuries.bitbo.io/

1.Asset Management Funds

In early 2025, major Wall Street firms launched Bitcoin-related products. BlackRock, the largest asset manager globally, saw strong market interest in its Bitcoin spot ETF introduced at the end of 2024, continuing to receive net inflows into 2025. Reports suggest that BlackRock is diversifying beyond Bitcoin into assets like Ethereum; on April 10, BlackRock acquired 4,126 ETH through its Ethereum spot ETF, valued at about $6.4 million. On April 15, BlackRock added 431.823 BTC through its Bitcoin ETF IBIT, valued at $37.07 million, now holding 571,869 BTC.

Besides BlackRock, financial giants such as Fidelity and JPMorgan are also reportedly increasing their holdings in Bitcoin and related derivatives. Fidelity began offering Bitcoin spot trading and custody services in 2024, with client funds showing a trend of adding BTC in Q1 2025. Additionally, institutions like Grayscale continue to hold large amounts of Bitcoin through trusts, with the discount rate of its flagship GBTC narrowing significantly in April, reflecting rising institutional demand.

2. Public Companies and Enterprises

Strategy, the public company with the largest Bitcoin holdings globally, continues to fundraise through stock and bond issuance to purchase Bitcoin. Recent data reveals Strategy bought 3,459 Bitcoins between April 7 and April 13 at an average price of $82,618, totaling $285.8 million. As of April 17, Strategy holds 531,644 Bitcoins at an average price of about $67,556.

Moreover, corporate financial reserves are increasingly allocating Bitcoin. Reports from consulting firms indicate more companies view Bitcoin as a balance sheet reserve asset to combat economic uncertainty. Companies like Tesla and Block (formerly Square) have already purchased Bitcoin. Currently, Tesla has not bought more since 2022, holding about 10,000 BTC without further reducing its position. Traditional industry companies like Norwegian energy company Aker have also allocated Bitcoin as strategic reserves, showing a more open attitude toward Bitcoin in traditional sectors.

Overall, traditional institutional funds are making significant inroads into the Bitcoin market: from Wall Street asset managers to public companies and various investment funds, Bitcoin is being incorporated into institutional portfolios for hedging, speculation, or strategic reserves. This trend provides solid buying support to the market and is a key driver behind the current wave of whale accumulation.

IV. BTC Price Trends and On-Chain Fund Flow Linkage

In recent weeks, Bitcoin prices have been quite volatile: after hitting a record high of $109,000 in January, they experienced a steep decline of about 30%, influenced by profit-taking and U.S. tariff policies, briefly dropping below $75,000. As of April 17, prices have bounced back and stabilized between $83,000 and $85,000.

• During the correction phase (from January’s peak to March’s low): Bitcoin dropped from its January high of $109K to around $75K, a decline of about 30%. On-chain data reveals that during this rapid price drop, exchanges saw net inflows as retail investors panicked and moved BTC to exchanges to sell for cash, while whale wallet balances increased as they bought BTC from exchanges and withdrew it. Specifically, from mid-March, the BTC balance on exchanges decreased, indicating net outflow, while stablecoins showed net inflow into exchanges, suggesting funds were pulled from falling prices and converted into stablecoins for value preservation and waiting. Overall, panic was intense at the time, with the crypto market’s greed/fear index at the beginning of April dropping to 19 (extreme fear), often indicating that selling pressure is near its end.

Source: https://www.coinglass.com/pro/i/FearGreedIndex

• Bottoming and rebound phase (early April to present): After dropping below $75K, Bitcoin quickly rebounded above $80K and moved sideways. At this time, on-chain fund flows showed net outflow from exchanges as investors withdrew coins, while stablecoins flowed into exchanges in large quantities, indicating funds were preparing to enter the market to buy coins. CryptoQuant monitoring shows that in early April, stablecoin net inflows into exchanges reached billions of dollars, peaking since July 2023. This indicates substantial funds entered the market, converted into USDT and other stablecoins, and charged into exchanges, waiting to bottom-fish Bitcoin and other crypto assets. In fact, the total supply of stablecoins grew by about $30 billion in Q1 2025, with the total market value exceeding $230 billion again. Tether’s multiple issuances in April provided “ammunition” for the market. With funds returning, Bitcoin prices stabilized above $80K, repeatedly testing support and resistance areas.

The interaction between on-chain data and prices further confirms large holders’ accumulation and bottoming. About 63% of Bitcoin has not moved on-chain for more than a year, reaching one of the highest levels ever, showing most chips are locked in by determined holders. Whales’ massive buying and concentrated holding, the decrease in exchange supply, and the clearing of panic selling are consistent with past cycle bottom characteristics. Provided the macro environment does not present unexpected negative factors, BTC is expected to regain its upward momentum and enter a new upward cycle.

V. Impact of Macroeconomic Environment and Policies

The connection between the crypto market and the macroeconomic environment is becoming increasingly clear. In April, the movement of funds by whales and institutions was not only a reaction to price technicalities but also deeply influenced by macro policies and market sentiment.

1. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Policy and Liquidity Expectations

The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy directly affects the global liquidity environment, thereby indirectly influencing the capital flow of Bitcoin and other risk assets. The significant rate hikes and balance sheet reductions by the Federal Reserve in 2022-2023 put pressure on the crypto market. However, the situation changed starting at the end of 2024: the Federal Reserve began cutting rates at its last meeting in 2024, and then held steady twice at the beginning of 2025, maintaining the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50%. At the FOMC meeting on March 19, Powell announced no rate hike, while lowering economic growth expectations and raising inflation forecasts, indicating increased uncertainty about the economic outlook. The Federal Reserve’s dot plot shows two expected rate cuts in 2025, with rates expected to fall to about 3.9% by the end of 2025. Additionally, the Federal Reserve announced a slowdown in the balance sheet reduction process starting in April, effectively sending a signal of easing to the market.

These policy shifts are favorable for the crypto market: the peak and decline of interest rates imply an improvement in the liquidity environment, enhancing investors’ risk appetite for the future. The market is more focused on the potential rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve: many institutions (such as JPMorgan) predict that if economic downward pressure increases, the Federal Reserve might even cut rates significantly in the second half of 2025. The expectation of rate cuts stimulates investors’ imagination for liquidity-driven markets, with some opinions suggesting that the Federal Reserve’s dovish turn could replay the scenario after the major liquidity infusion in 2020, bringing a new bull market. Overall, the policy shift by the Federal Reserve provides a favorable macro backdrop for this round of bottoming, although short-term noise will still cause temporary disturbances in fund flows.

2. Global Economy and Geopolitical Factors: Trade Policy, Recession Expectations, etc.

Another recent macro factor is changes in the trade environment. After returning to the White House, Trump adopted a tough tariff stance, and in early April, the Trump administration unexpectedly announced large-scale external tariffs, causing market risk aversion to soar and triggering financial market tension. However, after several days of turbulence, the White House introduced a 90-day tariff suspension measure, leaving room for negotiations. This erratic policy caused significant volatility in traditional markets, and the crypto market was also affected. Bitcoin demonstrated certain hedging attributes in this event: as trade frictions intensified and global stock markets declined, whales instead viewed Bitcoin as a value storage vehicle, accelerating purchases. This “risk hedging” behavior reflects a shift in investor mindset—more people view BTC as an asset to hedge against macroeconomic turmoil rather than purely speculative risk.

Recession expectations are also a key topic in the current macro environment. The IMF recently lowered global growth expectations, with most economies showing signs of slowing in a high-interest-rate environment. In the United States, the continued inversion of the yield curve increases the possibility of an economic recession in 2025-2026. For the crypto market, a mild recession may not be bad: because central banks are likely to counteract it through rate cuts and possible quantitative easing, which is favorable for liquidity-sensitive Bitcoin. However, if a severe economic crisis or systemic financial risk occurs, it might lead to a liquidity squeeze in the short term, causing investors to sell all assets, including cryptocurrencies. If events similar to the early 2023 Silicon Valley Bank incident recur, or problems arise in European banks, it could impact investor confidence and trigger large-scale on-chain sell-offs.

3. Policy and Regulatory Environment

In the first half of 2025, crypto regulation showed dual characteristics: on one hand, the U.S. SEC maintained strict scrutiny of altcoins and exchanges, while on the other hand, policies became increasingly friendly towards Bitcoin-related ETFs and institutional reports. For example, after the SEC approved the first Bitcoin spot ETF at the end of 2024, several similar products lined up for listing in 2025, providing a convenient channel for traditional funds to enter. Bitcoin thus gained more institutional investor favor, with increased ETF shares equivalent to indirect on-chain holdings. Europe also implemented the MiCA regulations, and after clarifying the framework, some compliant asset managers began allocating Bitcoin.

At the national level, on March 7, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order establishing a “strategic Bitcoin reserve,” using approximately 200,000 confiscated Bitcoins as reserve assets and authorizing the Treasury and Commerce Department to develop budget-neutral strategies to acquire more Bitcoin. El Salvador is the first country globally to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender since September 2021, actively purchasing Bitcoin under President Nayib Bukele’s leadership. The government implemented a “daily purchase of 1 BTC” plan, continuously increasing holdings regardless of market price. According to the March 2025 report, El Salvador holds about 5,800 BTC. Bhutan holds Bitcoin through its government-owned Druk Holding & Investments fund, with approximately 13,029 BTC as of February 2025.

Overall, the current policy environment is moderately favorable, with the advancement of central bank digital currencies and the relaxation of institutional entry permissions benefiting Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition.

VI. Conclusion and Outlook

Firstly, the movement of funds on the blockchain, whether from whales, large institutions, or small to medium investors, shows typical signs of a market bottom: assets are shifting from short-term speculators to long-term value investors. Traditional financial institutions are also using this period of adjustment to position themselves, with Bitcoin increasingly becoming part of broader institutional asset portfolios. Continuous accumulation by entities like BlackRock and Strategy reflects institutional and corporate confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value.

Secondly, the price trends and on-chain indicators support the assessment that a bottom has formed: Bitcoin found strong support around the $74K-$75K area, with multiple indicators suggesting significant “value consensus” at this level. Subsequently, the price rose above $80K and stabilized, marking a phase of digesting previous selling pressure and solidifying the bottom. On-chain activity has seen a moderate increase without overheating, indicating that market participants are returning cautiously and rationally. As time goes on, the market is likely to build momentum during this consolidation phase, paving the way for a new upward trend.

The macroeconomic environment is providing favorable conditions for the formation of a bottom. The Federal Reserve’s pause in rate hikes and anticipated rate cuts, along with the Trump administration’s temporary suspension of tariffs, have eased systemic market risks. Global liquidity is expected to improve, and market sentiment has recovered from extreme fear, now sitting in a neutral but slightly cautious position. Historically, periods of extreme fear often precede significant turning points.

However, some potential risks need to be monitored. Firstly, if new macroeconomic shocks occur, such as escalating geopolitical tensions or financial crises in major economies, they could interrupt the bottoming process and cause further declines. Secondly, technical indicators need confirmation: Bitcoin must break above the 200-day moving average on the daily chart and hold above key resistance levels to fully confirm the bottom. Until this happens, range-bound fluctuations are possible. Thirdly, on-chain indicators require continuous monitoring: if whales begin to sell off or if there is a sudden increase in BTC on exchanges, these anomalies should be promptly addressed.

In summary, various signs suggest that Bitcoin has largely completed its bottoming process by April 2025, with the market transitioning from panic to rebuilding confidence. Both macroeconomic factors and internal market conditions are improving, which could lead to a new upward trend and higher prices in the near future.

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