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Crypto and global markets are awaiting US inflation.
The inflation figures for July in the US will be announced today at 15:30 Turkish time. Under tariff pressure, it is expected that the inflation rates, which rose in June, will also show an upward trend, albeit slightly, in July.
Pay attention to core inflation
According to analyses by financial institutions, headline inflation is expected to be 2.8%, while core inflation is expected to be 3.0%. Especially the rate at which core inflation, excluding energy and food prices, will come may also affect the Fed's possible rate cuts in September. In June, the annual core inflation increase expected to be 3.0% was announced as 2.9%, but it is expected that this rate will rise back to 3%.
Experts noted that especially behind the increases in June, there were tariff pressures. Along with all these discussions, yesterday the US added an additional 90-day extension to the tariff negotiations with China. This situation may somewhat reduce tariff pressures in the short term.
"It won't be long-term"
Wells Fargo analyst Sarah House said in an interview with Yahoo Finance, "It is still early to see where the impact of tariffs could reach. We still do not know where domestic market sellers and end users will stand in this situation." House also commented, "There may be increases in inflation, but I still do not think this will be long-term."
Fed Chairman Powell also mentioned that the uncertainty surrounding tariffs is behind the prolongation of interest rate cuts.
Fed expectations may be affected
US inflation data will also closely concern the Fed's actions in September. The Fed, which Trump pressured to "cut rates," had recently been focusing on labor market figures rather than inflation. However, the significant decline in non-farm payroll figures also indicates a rate cut in September. The CME Fed Watch Tool, which shows market expectations, indicates that there is over an 84% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September.
Published: August 12, 2025 10:45Last Updated: August 12, 2025 10:51