Crypto market returns to high levels, U.S. macro situation stirs waves again

Recently, the crypto market has once again welcomed a rising trend, with Bitcoin prices hitting a historic high in US dollars. However, changes in the domestic political and economic situation in the United States have brought new uncertainties to the market.

Recently, an important financial legislation was approved by the U.S. House of Representatives, which involves multiple areas such as taxation, immigration, and healthcare. If ultimately passed, the U.S. debt ceiling will be significantly raised to $40.1 trillion, with the debt scale reaching 140% of GDP, setting a historical high. This has raised concerns in the market about the U.S. government's ability to repay its debts, and the attractiveness of U.S. Treasury bonds has further declined.

As a result, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has once again risen to a high of 4.5%. High bond yields will increase borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, potentially suppressing investment and consumption, ultimately affecting corporate profitability.

In the stock market, the three major indices have all ended their previous rebound momentum and are showing a downward trend. The Nasdaq index fell by 2.47%, the S&P 500 index dropped by 2.61%, and the Dow Jones index decreased by 2.47%. The US dollar index also ended its four-week consecutive rise, falling by 1.03% to 99.1252 this week.

In this context, gold has once again become a beneficiary. London gold rose 1.98% this week, reaching $3359.90 per ounce.

At the same time, the crypto market has shown a different trend. Bitcoin has been positively influenced by institutional fund inflows and the passage of related bills, leading to high sentiment, breaking historical highs, and setting a new record of $112,000 per coin.

From a technical indicator perspective, Bitcoin has been operating above the 5-week line for the entire week, with trading volume increasing. The weekly MACD has just risen above water. The price is running above the first ascending trendline and has tested the upper edge of the $90,000 to $110,000 range.

Although Bitcoin is still in a mid-term upward trend, it may undergo a certain degree of adjustment in the short term due to the volatility of traditional financial markets.

At the policy level, the U.S. Senate passed a procedural vote on the stablecoin regulatory framework with a vote of 66-32, marking the imminent implementation of the U.S. stablecoin regulatory framework. This bill defines the requirements for the definition, regulation, and auditing of U.S. dollar stablecoins, which is expected to promote the development of the blockchain industry.

Hong Kong has also officially passed the "Stablecoin Regulation Draft," establishing a comprehensive licensing and regulatory framework for fiat-backed stablecoins. These developments indicate that, in addition to serving as a store of value, blockchain applications based on smart contract platforms are gaining recognition from governments around the world.

In terms of capital flow, the crypto market has maintained a continuous positive capital inflow for 7 consecutive trading days, with a total inflow of 5.574 billion USD for the week, including 2.548 billion in stablecoins, 2.775 billion in Bitcoin spot ETFs, and 0.250 billion in Ethereum spot ETFs.

However, as the price of Bitcoin hits new highs, long-term holders are beginning to show signs of reduction in holdings. This week, the inflow of Bitcoin to exchanges reached 159,869.37 coins, while the Bitcoin balance on centralized exchanges dropped to 2,987,307 coins, but the outflow rate has slowed.

Overall, despite the pressure faced by traditional financial markets, the crypto market has remained resilient. However, investors need to be vigilant about potential risks and closely monitor changes in the global macroeconomic situation.