🌍 08/03 Market Macroeconomic Observation

🧐TL;DR:
BTC is struggling around 113k, with bears continuing to apply pressure; the RSI has overall dropped into the weak zone, and altcoins are generally losing value, with 112.6k becoming the last line of defense on the edge of a cliff.

👉 Trend Analysis:
Bitcoin touched a low of 112.6k yesterday, closing around 113.3k. From the K-line perspective, the red circle (selling pressure) is gradually expanding, while the green circle (buying pressure) is clearly weakening. The market has attempted to rebound multiple times but has been obstructed in the 114k–115k range. This indicates that the bullish momentum lacks continuity, and market confidence remains insufficient. Overall trading volume remains high but shows a bearish structure, reflecting ongoing selling pressure rather than incremental buying.

👉 RSI Indicator:
The average RSI across the market is only 37.59, falling into the weak zone. The BTC RSI is close to the oversold edge, indicating short-term momentum exhaustion. Most mainstream altcoins are hovering below 40, with only a few assets like FHE, BTCDOM, and MYX in the strong or overbought zones, but these are mainly driven by short-term funds and are unlikely to support the overall market. The generally low RSI of altcoins also suggests that speculative funds are no longer chasing small and mid-cap stocks, with increased market risk aversion.

👉 Large Orders and Fund Flow:
The large transaction shows sparse green circles and enlarged red circles, indicating that bullish capital is gradually retreating. The net long data remains at -54.7k, with almost no signs of recovery, while the net short stands firmly above 67k, reflecting that the bears still firmly hold the initiative. The OI/MC ratio remains around 0.04, which is at a low level, indicating that leveraged capital lacks enthusiasm for the current market situation. Overall, the capital structure is leaning towards the bearish side.

📌 Key Area Observation:
Support level: 112.6k is currently the most important support. If this level is broken, the market could quickly slide down to 110k, or even test 108k, at which point liquidations will increase significantly.

Resistance level: The range of 114.5k–115k remains the short-term ceiling. Previously, a large amount of selling pressure and profit-taking orders accumulated in this area, and unless there is a significant increase in volume to break through, it will be difficult for the market to turn around.

These two areas are exactly the points of intensive liquidation. Once broken through or lost, it could trigger a "chain reaction" that amplifies the market.

⏳ Holiday Effect:
The weekend is approaching, and market liquidity has begun to decline. Past experience shows that during holiday periods with thin trading volume, bears can often push prices with smaller funds, leading to extreme fluctuations with sharp declines or surges. If unexpected news occurs this weekend, the market is likely to experience severe volatility.

📌 Current Focus:
The current market situation is like a tug-of-war on the edge of a cliff, with the bulls' rope already pulled to the point of fraying, while the bears continue to exert pressure. 112.6k is the last foothold—if it holds, a technical rebound may occur, allowing the market to catch its breath temporarily; if it breaks, it could likely trigger panic liquidations, accelerating the price decline. The atmosphere in the market is tense, as if everyone is holding their breath to see who will let go first.

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