Analysis of US Economic Trends and Crypto Market Prospects

Recently, the U.S. economy has shown a complex situation. On one hand, the GDP data appears acceptable, while on the other hand, the non-farm employment data is concerning. Meanwhile, discussions about interest rate cuts within the Federal Reserve are becoming increasingly heated. As participants in the crypto market, these economic trends are worth closely monitoring, as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has always been an important factor influencing the crypto market.

US Economy: Surface Stability, but Actually Slowing Down?

The latest GDP data shows that the annualized quarter-on-quarter growth rate for the second quarter of 2025 reached 3.0%, a significant improvement compared to the previous quarter's -0.5%. However, a deeper analysis of the data reveals that this rebound has certain discrepancies. Imports fell sharply by 30.3%, mainly due to the gradual decline of stockpiling behaviors by companies resulting from prior tariff increases.

The "private domestic final sales" (including consumption and private investment) that truly reflect economic vitality has fallen to 1.2%, the lowest level since 2022. The year-on-year growth rate of service industry spending has also dropped below 2%, indicating that consumer spending is becoming increasingly cautious.

The performance of the job market more directly reflects the economic slowdown. In July, non-farm employment increased by only 73,000, and the data for the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. The average new jobs added over the past three months was only 35,000, the lowest level since June 2020. The labor force participation rate fell to 62.2%, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Currently, the job market is in a sluggish state of "few job seekers, few hires, few layoffs"; most industries are contracting except for education and healthcare.

Federal Reserve: Rate cut expectations rise, more easing likely in 2026

The recent remarks by the Federal Reserve Chairman have clearly become more dovish. After the July FOMC meeting, he specifically emphasized the "downside risks to employment," suggesting that monetary policy will shift from "restricting the economy" to "neutral," which is essentially paving the way for interest rate cuts.

According to the current economic data, interest rate cuts may begin as early as September. This is in stark contrast to the situation during the trade war in 2018, when the Federal Reserve was still raising rates. This time, it is likely to adopt a loose policy to counteract the impact of tariffs, which is undoubtedly good news for the crypto market.

What is more worth noting is the changes in the Federal Reserve's voting committee in 2026. From the current list, there is a clear increase in members who favor loose policies:

• The Director of the White House Economic Council has consistently advocated for loose policies to stimulate the economy.
• The finance minister also tends to support the economy through monetary policy.
• Former Federal Reserve governors have shifted from a hawkish stance to openly supporting interest rate cuts.

Even members who are seen as representatives of the hawkish stance are leaning towards a more moderate rather than extreme position. This structure of the voting committee suggests that a more accommodative monetary policy may be welcomed in 2026, and an increase in liquidity typically drives up the prices of crypto assets.

Key Economic Data for the Future

Several important economic data worth paying attention to will be released in mid-August:

• August 12: US Core CPI (expected month-on-month increase of 0.2%)
• August 14: Unemployment claims (expected 226,000)
• August 15: Retail sales data (expected month-on-month increase of 0.6%)
• August 15: University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (expected 61.7)

This data will directly impact the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, thereby affecting the direction of the crypto market.

For cryptocurrency investors, the current situation is relatively clear: the cooling of the US economy combined with the Federal Reserve's impending shift to easing is likely to improve market liquidity conditions. Although short-term market volatility is unavoidable, in the medium to long term, the overall shift in monetary policy may be more influential than individual policies. After all, in the crypto market, the increase in liquidity has always been the most powerful driving factor.