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Sygnum: Bitcoin's double top is worth being cautious about, but the likelihood of a full collapse is low.
According to the Gate News bot, CoinDesk reports that Katalin Tischhauser, the head of investment research at digital asset bank Sygnum, stated that the prospect of Bitcoin forming a double top after breaking through $100,000 should be approached with caution, but unless an unexpected "black swan" event occurs, a comprehensive collapse like in 2022 is unlikely.
Tischhauser stated in an interview with CoinDesk: "Due to challenges in fundamental valuations, the cryptocurrency market is highly driven by sentiment; therefore, technical analysis signals like double tops should be approached with caution. That said, a complete crash requires a catalyst like the Terra collapse or the FTX crash in 2022. Unless similar 'black swan' events occur, based on current political and regulatory support as well as ongoing institutional capital inflows, we may see a prolonged bull market cycle."
Bitcoin has primarily fluctuated between $110,000 and $100,000 over the past 50 days, indicating that the upward trend that peaked in January of this year has run out of steam. This has led several observers, including veteran technical analyst Peter Brandt, to begin considering the possibility that BTC's price trend may reverse bearish and form a double top pattern.
Analysts are concerned that the collapse of the double top pattern, which could fall from $110,000 and then break below $75,000, might lead to a price drop to around $27,000. Such a plunge would mean a 75% decrease from the peak.
It is important to note that technical factors alone rarely cause prices to plummet by 75%. For example, in the 12 months ending in November 2022, BTC dropped from $70,000 to $16,000, coinciding with the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle which exposed the excessive speculation in asset classes such as cryptocurrencies, laying the groundwork for the collapse of the Terra blockchain and FTX exchange. Both incidents resulted in massive wealth losses.
However, as Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal pointed out last year, the latest rebound is mainly driven by institutional flows, rather than the narratives of DeFi outperforming traditional finance or Ethereum being the new world computer.