Midterm Opportunity After XLM Stellar Pullback: Key Support and Target Analysis
XLM Stellar medium term pullback review and major news
In the first half of 2025, XLM Stellar performed well, especially from the end of May to mid-July, quickly rising from $0.23 to $0.52, with a cumulative increase of over 120%. This surge was not only benefited by the improvement in macro liquidity but also closely related to the development of the Stellar ecosystem itself.
Since the beginning of this year, the Stellar Development Foundation has announced a support of $50 million through an ecological fund for Soroban developer projects, accelerating the implementation of DeFi and RWA (real-world asset tokenization). In addition, the collaboration between Stellar and cross-border payment giant MoneyGram has also entered a new phase, bringing new growth points for the practical application of XLM.
Analysis of key support and resistance levels
On the technical chart, XLM completed its first healthy pullback from the high of $0.52 to the $0.41 level. Analysts generally believe that:
- Short-term support level: 0.40 USD round number and 50-day moving average (0.38 USD);
- Medium-term resistance levels: $0.48 (100-day moving average), $0.60 (previous highs);
- Gold support zone: 0.36–0.38 USD, if it breaks down, caution is needed regarding trend reversal.
It is worth noting that in mid-July 2025, XLM experienced a golden cross between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is seen as an important signal for a medium-term rise.
Medium term price forecast: Outlook for Q4 2025
Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2025, with the implementation of Protocol 23, the improvement of cross-chain functionality, and the expansion of the smart contract ecosystem, XLM is expected to attract more capital.
- Basic forecast range: $0.38–$0.60;
- Optimistic target price: $0.75 (requires market support and DeFi application explosion);
- Conservative range trading suggestion: Use $0.42 as the medium term entry point, and take profits in batches around $0.60.
If Stellar can launch one or two large RWA or CBDC pilot projects before the end of the year, the medium term valuation of XLM is expected to be further revised upward.
Risk warning and operational advice
- High market correlation: XLM is easily influenced by the sentiment fluctuations of BTC and ETH, it is recommended to pay attention to the direction of mainstream coins.
- Upgrade Uncertainty: If Protocol 23 is delayed or its features fall short, it will undermine market confidence.
- Ecological landing risk: The slow progress of DeFi projects may affect the actual demand pull.
Suggested configuration strategy:
Using the “pyramid accumulation” strategy, gradually build positions during each pullback, such as at the levels of 0.42, 0.38, and 0.36. Overall, control the position to not exceed 30% of total funds, and set a floating profit take-profit range of 15–20%.