XRP gains favourable information ahead of SEC's closed-door meeting! Endorsement from "USA Today" + Ripple expected to capture SWIFT market share, Spot ETF approval may speed up.

XRP became the center of attention on August 3rd (last Sunday), stimulated by the USA Today article "XRP is the smartest $500 crypto asset investment right now," with a price surge of 6.61% to $2.9503 in a single day. The core catalyst lies in Ripple potentially capturing 14% of SWIFT's global cross-border payment share (with annual transaction volume exceeding $20 trillion), accelerating the global adoption of XRP. Meanwhile, the SEC vs. Ripple case has reached a key node: the SEC closed-door meeting on August 7th may vote on abandoning the appeal against the ruling of 'programmatic sales not being a violation,' which, if passed, would significantly benefit XRP and accelerate spot ETF approval. Bitcoin (BTC) also rebounded by 1.52% to $114,312, mainly due to the Fed's interest rate cut probability soaring to 82.7% in September (CME FedWatch data), but the net outflow of $642.9 million from the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF last week created short-term pressure. The market will focus on five major catalysts: SEC appeal resolution, XRP/BTC spot ETF progress, CLARITY bill legislation, economic data (services PMI, unemployment claims), and Fed statements.

Endorsement by "USA Today" ignites buying frenzy, XRP seizes SWIFT market share as core narrative On August 3, an article titled "XRP is the smartest $500 Crypto Assets investment currently" in USA Today sparked a strong market reaction (possibly stemming from its earlier report of "$500 investment in XRP turning into $50,000 by 2020"). The core logic of the article is as follows:

If XRP captures 14% of SWIFT's global cross-border payment share (equivalent to an annual volume exceeding $20 trillion), it will greatly promote the adoption of XRP and the rise in its price. Lawyer and founder of Crypto Law, John E. Deaton, commented on the recent price trend, stating: "We may be in a bull market." XRP made a strong rebound on Sunday and continued its rise in the morning of Monday (August 4).

SEC vs. XRP Case: Closed-Door Meeting Returns, Appeal Abandonment Becomes Focus Despite media reports boosting sentiment, the progress of the SEC vs. XRP case and the prospects for XRP Spot ETF remain the core focus of the market. The market is optimistically expecting that the SEC may abandon the appeal against the ruling of "programmatic sales not violating regulations", which continues to support token demand.

• Key Timeline: The SEC's next closed-door meeting is scheduled for August 7, which provides SEC Chair Gary Gensler and the commissioners with an opportunity to vote on "abandoning the appeal."
• Increased Urgency: As the SEC must submit a progress report on the recently rejected settlement terms by August 15, a vote may be imminent.

Background: Since Judge Analisa Torres rejected the SEC's joint motion with XRP regarding settlement terms, the SEC has held five closed-door meetings.

XRP Price Outlook: Appeal Decision and ETF as the Deciding Factors

Technical aspects and catalytic pathways:

• Recent Performance: XRP ended a four-day losing streak on August 3, rebounding strongly by 6.61%, closing at $2.9503, significantly outperforming the market (+2.06%).
• Key Catalysts:

1. SEC appeal vote result
2. XRP Spot ETF related news
3. XRP seeks progress on US banking license
4. SWIFT related updates
5. CLARITY Act and 21st Century Mortgage Act in the legislative process of Congress

• Technical Path:
  • Upside: A breakout above $3.2 may challenge the July 28 high of $3.3302, and if it holds, it is expected to target the historical high of $3.6606.
  • Downside: A break below $3 may test $2.8 and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

Expectations of interest rate cuts rise, Bitcoin rebounds simultaneously Bitcoin (BTC) joined the bullish trend led by XRP in the crypto market on August 3. Shift in driving factors:

• Macroeconomic pressure alleviated: Concerns about the U.S. labor market and stagflation risk have diminished, shifting focus to the Fed's policy outlook.
• Probability of Rate Cut Soars: The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Fed cutting rates in September jumped from 37.2% on July 31 to 82.7% on August 4, boosting demand for risk assets such as BTC.
• Market Reaction: Expectations of interest rate cuts pushed U.S. stock index futures higher in the morning of August 4 (previously dragged down by non-farm data, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 falling 2.24% and 1.6%, respectively).

Bitcoin Spot ETF funds outflow, but inflow in July is strong Despite a rebound on Sunday and a continued rise in the early hours of Monday, BTC (currently reported at $114,312) is still far below its historical high of $122,055. There is currently a divergence in the funding situation:

• Short-term Pressure: The U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF market ended seven weeks of net inflow last week, recording a net outflow of $642.9 million.
• Long-term Support: The total net inflow in July reached $6 billion (up from $4.6 billion in June), still providing a bullish signal for BTC price trajectory. If a similar inflow occurs in August, BTC is expected to hit new highs.

BTC Price Outlook: Inflation Data and ETF Flows Set the Direction Market Drivers and Scenario Analysis:

• Key Drivers:

1. US Services PMI and Labor Market Data
2. Fed officials' speeches (hawkish/dovish signals)
3. CLARITY Act legislative progress
4. BTC Spot ETF capital flow

• Potential Scenario:
  • Bearish Scenario: Legislative obstacles, weak services PMI, Fed's hawkish comments, continuous outflows from ETFs. Combined pressure may push BTC below 50-day EMA, testing $110,000 support.
  • Bullish Scenario: The CLARITY Act receives bipartisan support, strong services PMI, Fed's dovish signals, and ETF inflows resume. In this scenario, BTC is expected to attack the historical high of $122,055.

Breakthrough or Rebound? Five Catalysts are the Key Traders need to closely follow the core catalysts below to determine whether the rebound of XRP and BTC can continue:

1. XRP Case Update: Pending SEC appeal vote results (August 7 meeting).
2. Legislative Dynamics: Progress of the CLARITY Act (Clarifying the regulatory framework for digital assets).
3. U.S. Economic Data: ISM Services PMI (released on August 5), Initial Jobless Claims (reflecting the labor market).
4. Fed's Statement: The hawkish or dovish signals released by officials' speeches.
5. ETF Market Capital Flow: The trend of capital flow is crucial for the supply and demand balance of BTC.

Conclusion: XRP is boosted in the short term by media endorsement and expectations of the SEC appeal decision, but whether it can break through the $3.2 resistance still depends on the closed-door meeting on August 7. Bitcoin is caught in a tug-of-war between macro favourable information (rising interest rate cut expectations) and liquidity unfavourable factors (short-term ETF outflows), with a wide fluctuation likely to continue between $110,000 and $122,055. Investors should focus on the SEC regulatory trends, the legislative process of the CLARITY Act, and economic data guidance, especially being vigilant about the Fed's statements and the marginal changes in ETF capital flows, as these factors will determine whether the two leading tokens can enter a new trend market.