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Institutions: The market's expectations for the Fed's September meeting have changed dramatically.
Jin10 data reported on August 14, the institutional survey shows that market expectations for the Fed's September meeting have undergone a huge change. According to Kalshi's data, traders now expect for the first time a higher likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut (11%) than no rate cut (10%). Most respondents still believe there will be a 25 basis point cut (81%), but the balance between "holding steady" and "larger rate cuts" is shifting, indicating that some are starting to digest more aggressive easing policies.