Bitcoin's record high faces resistance, is Ethereum at $4000 just the beginning?

Market Observation

The U.S. House of Representatives has passed the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act, establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins and clarifying the regulatory jurisdiction of crypto assets. These two bills have garnered significant bipartisan support, indicating that the long-sought regulatory clarity in the digital asset industry will gradually be realized. At the same time, there are reports of plans to open the 401(k) retirement market to investments in alternative assets such as cryptocurrencies, gold, and private equity, a move that could profoundly change how Americans save and accelerate the mainstreaming of cryptocurrencies.

In terms of monetary policy, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller and Vice Chair Michelle Bowman are among the few officials who publicly support a rate cut in July. In a speech in New York, Waller emphasized that despite tariffs pushing up prices for certain goods, core inflation has been below expectations for five consecutive months and wage growth has not accelerated. He suggested ignoring the temporary effects of tariffs and focusing on core inflation, which is close to the 2% target. Waller warned that the labor market is on a "dangerous edge" and expects the economy to "remain weak" in the second half of the year, recommending a 25 basis point rate cut at the FOMC meeting at the end of July. However, most officials are concerned about the long-term effects of tariffs and advocate for maintaining interest rates. The futures market shows a high probability of no change in interest rates this month, with expectations for a rate cut in September slightly above 50%.

An analyst pointed out that the recent significant rise in Bitcoin prices, which reached a historic high, was due to the dual resonance effect of active on-site funds and substantial inflow of off-site funds. The key to this rise was breaking through the fluctuation range of $90,000 to $110,000 established since last November. The analyst believes that breaking this range marks the official start of the fourth wave of the bull market for Bitcoin and predicts that the market may complete a rapid rally in the next two to three months. Furthermore, the breakthrough of Bitcoin has also stimulated the bullish sentiment for other crypto assets such as Ether, leading to a general upward trend in the market.

Bitcoin is facing a critical technical level, with analysts suggesting that Bitcoin is encountering a resistance level of $120,000, and may oscillate between $115,000 and $123,218 in the short term. Despite buyers attempting to push the price higher, bears have successfully defended this level, indicating that Bitcoin may maintain range-bound fluctuations in the short term. If Bitcoin falls below $115,000, it could further test the key support level of $110,530; conversely, if the price breaks through the resistance range of $120,000 to $123,218, it could aim for $135,729 or even $150,000. Another analyst also emphasized that breaking above $120,126 is a preliminary bullish signal, and holding above $123,195 will further confirm the trend. Some on-chain data analysis provides an optimistic perspective, noting that the MVRV indicator, which measures unrealized profits for short-term holders, is currently only at 1.15, well below the typical 1.35 that triggers profit-taking, suggesting that there may still be a 20% to 25% upside before entering the next round of correction.

For Ethereum, some analyses suggest that its current trend is similar to the 2016-17 cycle, and breaking through the key resistance level of $4,000 could trigger a larger scale increase. Predictions indicate that, against the backdrop of digital asset financial companies pushing a large amount of ETH into staking pools, and ETFs and private reserves leading to a continuous decline in liquidity, a target of $10,000 may be achievable. In addition, institutional buying enthusiasm remains high, with some publicly listed companies recently significantly increasing their holdings of ETH.

In the altcoin market, concept coins related to AI companions continue to trigger market fluctuations. Yesterday, after a well-known figure announced the naming of the AI companion, the market value of the similarly named token soared to $20 million, but other related coins plummeted as a result. The previously hot AI companion concept coin's market value has also significantly retreated from its peak. Additionally, an AI self-running experiment has spawned a new concept coin. Although the developer has not acknowledged this token, its market value quickly surpassed $16 million and has currently slightly retreated.

Key Data (As of July 18, 12:00)

• Bitcoin: $120,495 (Year-to-date +28.59%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $51.841 billion
• Ethereum: $3,647.28 (Year-to-date +9.03%), daily spot trading volume is $67.357 billion
• Fear & Greed Index: 71 (Greed)
• Average GAS: BTC: 0.72 sat/vB, ETH: 3.9 Gwei
• Market Share: BTC 60.9%, ETH 11.1%
• 24-hour BTC long to short ratio: 50.58%/49.42%
• Sector Rise and Fall: PayFi sector rose by 15.95%; L2 sector rose by 11.52%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 161,013 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of 610 million USD, including liquidations of 228 million USD in Bitcoin, 80.5679 million USD in Ether, and 89.3442 million USD in XRP.
• BTC medium to long-term trend channel: upper channel line (116841.19 USD), lower channel line (114527.50 USD)
• ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper channel line (2997.71 USD), lower channel line (2938.35 USD)

ETF Flows (as of July 17)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$523 million, continuing a net inflow for 11 days
• Ethereum ETF: +$602 million, a historic second high

Today's Preview

• A Bitcoin ETF will be listed in Hong Kong on July 18, becoming the first of its kind in Hong Kong this year.
• A trading platform will delist multiple perpetual contract trading pairs on July 18.
• Multiple tokens will be unlocked on July 18, involving a large amount.

Top 100 market cap gainers today: Lido DAO (LDO) up 22.2%, Hedera (HBAR) up 20.6%, Cronos (CRO) up 18.7%, Flare (FLR) up 18.4%, UNI up 17.3%.

Hot News

• A certain trading platform will launch a new token.
• Well-known investors are suspected of making large purchases of LDO and AAVE
• The total amount of tokens repurchased by the Solana ecosystem DEX exceeds $190 million.
• Nearly 60% of participants in the presale of a certain token have sold or transferred their tokens.
• An institution exchanged a large amount of stETH for ETH and transferred it out, with some already transferred to exchanges.
• Multiple listed companies disclose or plan to increase their holdings in cryptocurrency
• New project launched token public sale, economic model has been announced.
• ETH perpetual contract trading volume surpasses BTC, ranking first in the market.
• The total market value of cryptocurrencies has surpassed $4 trillion, and the market value of stablecoins has exceeded $266 billion.