HashKey Trading Moment: The macro environment is currently facing headwinds, and Bitcoin holding at $112,000 is the key to a new round of rise.

1. Market Observation

Since last Friday, there have been continuous upheavals in the global macroeconomic and policy landscape. The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July fell far short of expectations, with only 73,000 new jobs added, and the data for May and June was significantly revised down by 258,000 jobs, causing market turbulence. This move directly led to President Trump firing the director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Erica McEntyre, and accusing her of falsifying data, which intensified concerns about the quality of federal economic data. Meanwhile, the sudden resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler provided an opportunity for Trump to appoint a governor who might support interest rate cuts, significantly raising market expectations for a rate cut in September.

As a result, combined with the pressure from the new tariff policies and the increased production by OPEC+, global risk assets are under pressure. Goldman Sachs' Tony Pasquariello pointed out that despite strong earnings reports from large tech companies, stock prices reacted flatly, while small-cap stocks faced a sharp decline, indicating a severe lack of market breadth and a clear shift of funds towards safe havens. New York Fed President Williams believes that the labor market is cooling moderately but remains robust, holding an open yet cautious attitude towards a rate cut in September; meanwhile, the White House attributes the weak employment data to technical factors and expects a rebound in the future. However, the market generally believes that the Federal Reserve is facing a contradictory dilemma of rising inflation and a weakening labor market, with the risk of policy missteps re-emerging.

In the Asia-Pacific region, progress in the RWA field continues. The world's first RWA registration platform, initiated by the Hong Kong Web 3.0 Standardization Association, is set to officially launch on August 7, aiming to provide a full-process service for the tokenization of real assets. HashKey's chief analyst, Jeffrey Ding, commented that the launch of this platform is a key step in regulatory innovation for Hong Kong in the RWA field. By establishing standardized processes, it can effectively enhance market compliance and transparency. He believes that the strong confidence of capital markets in the RWA sector will further promote the research and development of related technologies and the commercial application of these technologies, injecting new momentum into the digital economy development of Hong Kong and the entire Asia-Pacific region.

Bitcoin fell below $112,000 over the weekend but has since rebounded to above $114,000. 10x Research points out that the price drop below $112,000 is related to signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market, which may indicate a significant market change. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes that with the U.S. tariff bill nearing its third-quarter deadline, coupled with weak non-farm payroll data and a lack of credit growth in the global economy, it is difficult to support economic expansion, and Bitcoin could drop to $100,000. Trader Cipher X warns that if it cannot regain $116,000, the price may fall to $104,000. Analyst CrypNuevo expects the price may briefly pull back to $110,000 and believes this level can provide effective support. Analyst BitBull also thinks that Bitcoin may bottom out in the range of $110,000 to $112,000. Analyst Man of Bitcoin's technical analysis indicates that holding $112,000 is key to starting a new round of increases, whereas dropping below it may confirm a top formation. Although Matrixport reports that August and September are usually weak months for Bitcoin, BitBull predicts based on technical patterns that Bitcoin's reversal pattern is still ongoing, with a target price possibly reaching $148,000, and the market generally predicts that BTC may reach $150,000 by October 2025.

On the Ethereum front, Arthur Hayes also predicts that it may test $3000. Trader IncomeSharks believes that the current price performance resembles a false breakout and advises investors to operate with caution. Well-known crypto analyst 0xENAS is focusing on short-term opportunities for another push into the 3.8K-4K range, and believes that the potential of the DAT (Tokenized Asset Trust) model, which is similar to an ETF tool, is underestimated, and may become key to attracting large inflows of traditional financial capital. Fundstrat Capital's Tomas Lee has provided an extremely optimistic prediction, stating that with Wall Street's influx, Ethereum's fair price could reach between $10,000 and $20,000 within the next 12 months.

Over the weekend, due to Musk's retweeting of related posts, Meme coins related to the Grok concept surged across the board, with the female AI companion concept Ani rising by 45% in 24 hours, and the male AI companion concept Valentine soaring by 103%.

2. Key Data (as of August 4, 12:00 HKT)

(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)

• Bitcoin: $114,556 (Year-to-date +22.42%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $23.495 billion
• Ethereum: $3,555.34 (YTD +6.4%), daily spot trading volume is $18.879 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 64 (Greed)
• Average GAS: BTC: 1 sat/vB, ETH: 0.21 Gwei
• Market share: BTC 61.2%, ETH 11.5%
• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, ETH, BTC, ENA, TOKAMAK
• 24-hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 49.52%/50.48%
• Sector Gains and Losses: PayFi up 6.78%; RWA up 5.46%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 50,981 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $135 million, including $29.46 million in BTC liquidations, $41.81 million in ETH liquidations, and $9.16 million in XRP liquidations.
• BTC Medium to Long-term Trend Channel: Upper Line of the Channel (116909.47 USD), Lower Line of the Channel (114594.43 USD)
• ETH Medium to Long-term Trend Channel: Upper channel line (3615.31 USD), Lower channel line (3543.72 USD)

*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower bounds, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF Inflows (as of August 1)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$812 million, the second highest in history
• Ethereum ETF: -$155 million, sustained 20-day net inflow comes to an end

4. Today's Outlook

• Binance Alpha will launch Cycle Network (CYC) and DarkStar (DARK) on August 4.
• The second phone of Solana Mobile, Seeker, has started shipping.
• dYdX Foundation is applying for $8 million in funding to launch a new dYdX grant program, with plans to initiate an on-chain governance proposal today.
• Binance Alpha will launch Towns (TOWNS) on August 5.
• Rice Robotics will launch the RICE token on the TokenFi Launchpad on August 5.
• IOTA (IOTA) will unlock approximately 8.63 million tokens at 8 AM on August 4, which accounts for 0.22% of the current circulation, valued at about $1.6 million.
• GoGoPool (GGP) will unlock approximately 750,000 tokens on August 4 at 8:00 AM, representing 10.60% of the current circulation, valued at approximately 1.2 million USD.
• Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 172 million tokens on August 5 at 3 PM, which is 2.70% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $95.8 million.
• Spectral (SPEC) will unlock approximately 3.62 million tokens on August 5 at 8 AM, which accounts for 17.57% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $1.8 million.

Top 100 market cap largest gains today: HEX up 14.7%, MemeCore up 13.1%, Pulsechain up 11.3%, Ethena up 11.2%, PulseX up 11.1%.

5. Hot News

• Data: Tokens such as ENA, IMX, MOVE will see large unlocks, with ENA unlocking worth approximately 95.8 million USD.
• Macro Outlook for This Week: New Tariff Red Line Sparks the "Final Battle"
• This Week's Forecast | Trump's Equal Tariff Effective Date Delayed to August 7; Ethena (ENA) Will Unlock Tokens Worth Approximately $96 Million
• Analysis: Paradigm may hold approximately $765.4 million worth of HYPE
• Linea on-chain DEX Etherex will launch its native token REX on August 6.
• Michael Saylor: In the short term, Bitcoin is a trading asset, but in the long term, it is a treasury asset.
• Arthur Hayes sold approximately $13.35 million worth of ETH, ENA, and PEPE.
• Nasdaq-listed company DevvStream Corp. purchased $10 million worth of Bitcoin and Solana
• In July, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the US increased by 73,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%.

This article is supported by HashKey. HashKey Exchange is the largest licensed virtual asset exchange in Hong Kong and is also the most trusted fiat gateway for crypto assets in Asia. It is committed to setting a new benchmark for virtual asset exchanges in terms of compliance, fund security, and platform protection.