Market Observation and Analysis

Macroeconomic Liquidity

Monetary policy remains stable. The Federal Reserve continues to keep interest rates unchanged, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%. The central bank chairman did not provide clear guidance on a potential rate cut in September, emphasizing that inflation risks still exist, and pointed out that the labor market is strong, which has suppressed market expectations for a rate cut this year. The U.S. dollar index rose to a two-month high, and U.S. stocks continued to set new highs. The cryptocurrency market has underperformed compared to the stock market.

Overall Market Overview

This week, Bitcoin is fluctuating at a high level, while altcoins are generally underperforming, and stocks in the crypto circle are mostly declining. The market is mainly focused on the Ethereum ecosystem.

Top five gainers: LOKA 300% (, ZORA 160% ), ZBCN 150% (, KTA 140% ), REKT 140% ( Top five decline: TKX ) 60% (, FARTCOIN ) 30% (, M ) 30% (, VIRTUAL ) 20% (, GRASS ) 20% (

ZORA is a social finance project that collaborates with a certain public chain application. Supported by the foundation of a well-known cryptocurrency exchange, it has increased tenfold from its bottom price.

ENA: The project's established stablecoin and new stablecoin continue to be profitable, and a subsidiary specifically investing in US stocks has been established. ENA has also partnered with a lending protocol to issue stablecoin USDE for revolving loans.

CFX: This is a domestically compliant public chain, and Hong Kong plans to issue stablecoin licenses in September.

On-chain Data Analysis

Bitcoin liquidity is facing challenges. An early whale sold over 80,000 bitcoins through over-the-counter trading, with a total transaction amount close to $10 billion. However, the market effectively absorbed this selling pressure, with 97% of the circulating supply still in profit.

The supply of stablecoins increased slightly by 1%.

Institutional funds continue to see a net inflow. Ethereum has driven a significant influx of funds, with this year's inflow already surpassing the total for last year.

The long-term trend indicator MVRV-Z score reflects the overall market profitability. Currently, this indicator is at 2.6, close to the neutral zone. A score greater than 6 indicates that the market is in a top range, while a score less than 2 indicates that it is in a bottom range.

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Futures Market

Funding Rate: This week's rate is 0.01%, which is at a normal level. A rate between 0.05% and 0.1% indicates high long leverage, which may suggest a short-term top; a rate between -0.1% and 0% indicates high short leverage, which may suggest a short-term bottom.

Open interest: This week, the open interest for Bitcoin futures has started to decline.

Long/Short Ratio: Currently at 1.1, reflecting a neutral market sentiment. This indicator is generally viewed as a contrarian indicator; below 0.7 indicates panic, while above 2.0 indicates greed. However, the recent fluctuations in this indicator have decreased its reference value.

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Spot Market

Bitcoin fell this week, while the Ethereum to Bitcoin exchange rate remains strong, with a few small-cap coins related to the stablecoin concept leading the way. Market funds are gradually rotating from Bitcoin to Ethereum and altcoins, and it is expected that risks may gradually accumulate in the future.

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Stablecoins and Tokenization of Physical Assets

Stablecoin Industry Dynamics

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has stated that the first batch of stablecoin issuance licenses may be issued early next year. In the initial phase, holders of compliant stablecoins in Hong Kong will need to undergo real-name verification.

The Deputy Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority stated that the number of stablecoin licenses to be issued in the first batch has not yet been determined and will depend on the quality of the materials submitted by the applying institutions. He expects the first license to be issued early next year and emphasized that the approval standards are very high. The Monetary Authority is open to the types of fiat currencies that stablecoins can be pegged to, and applying institutions can choose a single fiat currency or a basket of fiat currencies as the pegged object.

Hong Kong will open the first batch of stablecoin issuer license applications from August 1 to September 30. All compliant stablecoin holders in Hong Kong must have their identity verified, similar to a real-name system, to strengthen anti-money laundering controls. This requirement is stricter than the "white list" system proposed during the previous consultation, but it may be relaxed in the future with technological advancements.

A blockchain company under a certain e-commerce giant has registered the trademarks "JCOIN" and "JOYCOIN", which may be used as the names for its stablecoins. The registration details indicate that the related services include providing electronic fund transfers and cryptocurrency financial transactions through blockchain technology. The company is one of the participants in the monetary authority's regulatory sandbox for stablecoins and had previously collaborated with a bank to test a stablecoin-based cross-border payment solution for enterprises.

Analysis indicates that the issuance of stablecoins by this e-commerce giant is expected to significantly reduce cross-border payment costs, enhance settlement efficiency, and help it seize opportunities in the international supply chain and retail payment sectors. This move highlights its strategic layout in the blockchain finance field and reflects the attractiveness of Hong Kong as a digital asset financial center.

A major payment giant has announced the launch of a new feature in the U.S. market that allows small merchants to accept payments in over 100 different cryptocurrencies, including mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum. This move significantly expands the company's service offerings in the cryptocurrency payment sector and is expected to encourage more merchants to participate in digital currency transactions.

The program is mainly aimed at small and medium-sized merchants, aiming to lower the threshold for using crypto assets and enhance operational flexibility. As more merchants adopt crypto payments, it is expected to promote the application of digital assets in everyday scenarios. This open payment network could become a bridge connecting traditional finance and the crypto ecosystem, providing new revenue channels for merchants and supporting the practicality of cryptocurrencies.

An organization announced a strategic investment of $10 million in the synthetic dollar stablecoin project Falcon Finance. The project allows users to collateralize various assets ) such as mainstream stablecoins, cryptocurrencies, tokenized government bonds, etc. ( to mint USDf, which currently has a circulation of over $1 billion.

The reasons for the rapid growth of the project include: support for multiple collateral assets, provision of a staking yield distribution mechanism, and expectations for points and airdrops, among others.

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Progress of Asset Tokenization

The U.S. White House Digital Assets Working Group has released an important policy report, proposing several core recommendations:

1. Require regulatory agencies to clarify the rules for the registration, custody, and trading of crypto assets;
2. Promote Congress to pass relevant legislation to clarify regulatory responsibilities;
3. Support blockchain tokenized securities, oppose the issuance of central bank digital currency;
4. Promote the integration of encryption technology into traditional financial infrastructure.

Hong Kong has released the "2025 Digital Asset Policy Statement", confirming its commitment to becoming a global center for digital asset innovation. Hong Kong has implemented a licensing system for virtual asset trading platforms and will enforce regulations for stablecoins starting August 1. The government is advancing more related regulations and has established a regulatory sandbox mechanism to encourage innovation.

Hong Kong is strengthening its cooperation with international organizations, the mainland, and other regions to promote the establishment of digital asset regulatory standards. The Financial Management Bureau and the Securities and Futures Commission are also exploring the application of traditional asset tokenization to promote the implementation of related products.

A large bank in Japan has acquired an office building in Osaka for approximately $680 million, planning to tokenize it and issue digital securities. Institutional investors can participate through a private REIT, while retail investors can purchase tokenized shares on specific platforms.

This initiative lowers the threshold for ordinary investors to participate in high-quality commercial real estate investments. The bank's plan caters to both institutional and retail demands, integrating traditional REITs and digital securities, which is expected to enhance asset liquidity and market transparency.

This case marks a new stage in the Japanese asset tokenization market, gradually moving towards a blend of institutional leadership and retail participation.

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