The prevalence and structural bull run of the crypto market

Readers often ask in the comment section: Are there any upcoming trends for alts?

I have responded to this question multiple times. I think it will be difficult to see a widespread altcoin bull market; however, a few valuable projects and valuable coins may still rise again with the emergence of a bull market.

This view is merely my own intuitive feeling, and it is not based on much experience or supported by a lot of historical data.

However, recently, after reading about a senior's investment experience, I have gained a clearer understanding of the intuitive feeling mentioned above.

This senior is a well-known investor on Xueqiu, nicknamed "Retail Investor B". He recorded his investment experience in A-shares from 2013 to 2023 in real-time on Xueqiu, and then canceled his account on December 31, 2023, completely "vanishing" from the online space.

He is a first-generation investor in A-shares, having started investing in A-shares in 1991, experiencing various historical changes of A-shares and recording all stages of growth of A-shares.

Although he canceled his account, fortunately, many attentive netizens on Xueqiu meticulously recorded all his remarks and compiled them into a book, which gave me the opportunity to read that history and broaden my horizons.

His narrative vividly describes the general bull market and the structural bull market of the A-shares.

When the A-shares were just established, there were only dozens or hundreds of listed stocks.

At that time, no matter what stock you bought, regardless of how high the price was, and no matter how badly it fell during the subsequent bear market, as long as the next bull market came, everything could be unblocked.

At that time, the A-shares market was one where anyone daring enough to jump in could become "rich overnight." Because there were too few stocks that could be speculated on, when a bull market arrived, after the leading stocks were driven too high, new players could only buy and dared to buy those cheaper stocks. Thus, for a period of time, the A-shares market was one where as long as you could hold onto your stocks, even if you bought junk stocks, you could eventually turn things around and even make money.

At that time, every bull market that the A-shares encountered was what we called a general bull market.

Isn't this phenomenon exactly what we saw in the crypto ecosystem years ago?

It's just that the retail investors who rushed into the A-shares back then have become today's retail investors rushing into the crypto ecosystem---the flowers are similar year after year, but the people are different every year.

However, after 2000, especially after 2010, as the scale of the A-shares grew larger, with the total market value reaching trillions or even tens of trillions, it became increasingly difficult for general social funds, even institutional funds, to create such a widespread bull market. Even before the stock market crash in 2015, even when the entire society utilized financing and margin trading methods, it was still difficult to form a situation where junk stocks rose universally.

In this case, the A-shares have almost never seen a widespread bull market again, only structural bull markets—only certain sectors rise, while many obscure sectors remain flat.

This phenomenon is not only present in the A-shares, but also in the Hong Kong and U.S. stock markets. Especially in the U.S. stock market, only a few leading high-performing tech stocks have achieved significant gains during these years of a long bull market, while a considerable number of stocks are in a sideways movement.

Doesn't this look particularly like the situation we see in the crypto ecosystem today?

In this round of market trends, if we exclude the various wildly rising meme coins and look at those old coins from the past, isn't it true that aside from a few projects that are still continuously building and have value support, the vast majority are basically in a state of lying flat?

Following this line of thought, let's extend it further: Among the newly emerged tokens in this round of market, how many will still have the hope to rise again after this round of bubble bursts?

I believe the answer is self-evident.

So we should abandon the illusion of the ongoing altcoin season, seriously examine the tokens we currently hold, and get rid of or exchange those tokens that we believe have no prospects or are uncertain, trying to simplify as much as possible.

In the future, when we are ready to take action, especially when we are preparing to invest heavily, we must be cautious and cautious.