The next major pullback may only be triggered by a rate hike in Japan to reverse the trend into short positions. I just mentioned that we are about to enter a unilateral upward trend similar to the one from October 28 to December 18 last year, lasting about 50 days. The real major pullback is likely to occur in July, which is the first month of the third quarter. Japan typically raises rates every six months, and July happens to be exactly six months since the last hike. If we return to the highs before December 19 (btc hitting a new high) within a month, we can escape the peak.

Therefore, the script is completely contrary to what most people in the crypto space expect. This year will see a reversal in the second quarter, a pullback in the third quarter (most people expect a surge in the third quarter), and a peak in the fourth quarter. From this perspective, the law of the four-year cycle has not changed, and those who say that the law of the four-year halving cycle has been broken are speaking too early.

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