The wave of artificial intelligence is coming, and Musk admits that government work is just a "side mission"

Recently, the American startup accelerator Y Combinator held its first AI startup school in San Francisco, inviting several heavyweights from the AI industry, including Elon Musk and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman.

In an interview, Musk candidly evaluated his recently concluded 130-day term as a special government employee as an "interesting side quest," but its significance pales in comparison to the impending AI revolution. He likened the work of the government efficiency department to "cleaning the beach," while the coming AI is a "thousand-foot-high tsunami."

Musk predicts that digital superintelligence may arrive this year or next, which will be smarter than humans. At the same time, the number of humanoid robots in the future is expected to far exceed that of humans, potentially reaching 5 to 10 times the human population. He further boldly predicts that the scale of the AI-driven economy will be thousands or even millions of times larger than the current one, with human intelligence potentially accounting for less than 1%. The following are key points from his speech:

• It is predicted that digital superintelligence may arrive this year or next year, and it will be smarter than humans. He emphasized, "It won't happen this year, but it will definitely happen next year."

• The number of humanoid robots in the future will far exceed that of humans, possibly being 5 times or even 10 times that of humans.

• The predicted scale of the AI-driven economy will be thousands or even millions of times larger than the current one, propelling civilization towards Type II on the Kardashev scale (stellar energy level), with the proportion of human intelligence potentially falling below 1%;

• Musk emphasized that "rigorous adherence to the truth" is the most important cornerstone of AI safety, and forcing AI to believe in untrue things is extremely dangerous;

• Looking back at the early days of SpaceX, the success of the fourth rocket launch after three consecutive failures was a "matter of life and death," and Tesla's financing was completed at the last moment before bankruptcy in 2008.

Government work is just "side quests": returning to the "main quest".

In an interview, Musk admitted that his experience in Washington D.C. made him deeply realize that "the signal noise in politics is terrible." He described his work in D.C. as "an interesting side mission," but ultimately decided to "return to the main mission - building technology, which is what I love to do."

This billionaire explained the fundamental reason for leaving his government position: "Fixing the government is like cleaning a beach------the beach is dirty, with needles, feces, and trash. But at the same time, there is this thousand-foot-high wall of water, which is the AI tsunami. If you are facing a thousand-foot-high tsunami, how important is it really to clean the beach? Not that important."

AI superintelligence is imminent: it is bound to arrive this year or next year.

Musk has given a very clear prediction about the arrival time of digital superintelligence. He stated: "I think we are very close to digital superintelligence. If it doesn't happen this year, it will definitely happen next year."

The "digital superintelligence" he defined is "an intelligence that is smarter than any human being in anything." Musk predicts that AI will drive the economy to achieve exponential growth - "not 10 times bigger than the current economy, but thousands of times, even millions of times."

AI will profoundly change the future in ways that are hard to quantify... Assuming we do not go astray, and AI does not eliminate us or itself, what you will ultimately see is not an economy ten times larger than the current one. Ultimately, if our descendants (mainly machine descendants) become a Kardashev Type II civilization or more advanced, we will be talking about an economy thousands or even millions of times larger than today's.

He further elaborated on the position of human intelligence in the future: "At some point, the percentage of human intelligence will become quite small. At some point, the total sum of human intelligence will be less than 1% of all intelligence."

Training large-scale AI models

Musk revealed in an interview that he is currently training Grok 3.5, "with a focus on reasoning abilities."

It is reported that they are seeking $4.3 billion in equity financing, which will be combined with $5 billion in debt financing, covering the social media platform X.

Hardware Competition: An Engineering Miracle from Zero to One Hundred Thousand GPUs

Musk solved the hardware challenges of AI training using first principles thinking. When suppliers told them it would take 18 to 24 months to complete a supercluster of 100,000 H100 GPUs, Musk's team compressed it to 6 months.

They rented an abandoned Electrolux factory in Memphis, addressed the 150 MW power demand by leasing generators, rented a quarter of the mobile cooling equipment in the U.S., and used Tesla Mega Packs to smooth out power fluctuations during training. Musk even personally participated in the wiring work, "sleeping in the data center."

Currently, the training center has 150,000 H100, 50,000 H200, and 30,000 GB200, and the second data center is about to go live with 110,000 GB200.

Multiple Future Visions: Robot Legions and Interstellar Civilizations

Elon Musk predicts that there will be at least five times the number of humanoid robots compared to humans, "maybe ten times." He admitted to having delayed in the field of AI and robotics due to concerns about "making the Terminator a reality," but ultimately realized that "whether I do it or not, this will happen. You are either a spectator or a participant. I would rather be a participant."

In a grander vision, Musk places human civilization within the framework of the Kardashev scale. He believes that humanity currently only utilizes 1-2% of Earth's energy and is far from being a Type I civilization. Becoming a multi-planetary species is a key step in expanding consciousness to the interstellar level, "greatly enhancing the potential lifespan of civilization or consciousness."

Musk stated that he plans to transfer enough material to Mars in about 30 years to make Mars self-sufficient, "even if supply ships from Earth stop operating, Mars can continue to develop and thrive."