This week, the market has shifted from interest rate cut speculation to tariff speculation?

Originally, the liquidity during the weekend was so low that there was almost nothing to play with... It wasn't until the end of Sunday that there was a bit of volatility...
The trading volume of spot and contract markets across the entire network has also dropped to its lowest point in the past year over the past week...

Taking the large pancake as an example, the chips are largely concentrated between 9W5~9W8 (around 1.5 million) and around 105000-107000 (which also concentrated over 2 million large pancakes).
Most holders in these two large ranges haven't moved their positions, even when the price previously broke below the 105,000 range, there was no panic selling in this recent wave. At the same time, old funds on the chain will start selling as soon as the price approaches 110,000, which is why every time it goes up to 110,000, it gets pushed back down.
So the market is stuck here.. There are no further macro and news drivers to push more funds to break new highs.. At the same time, the funds that have already entered the market are not in a panic to sell off.. It is estimated that in the medium to long term, it will still oscillate in this large range for a period of time...

From a macro perspective.. The wave that pushed U.S. stocks to a new high in the past two weeks has basically quieted down the expectation of a rate cut in July.. With the non-farm payroll report released last week indicating that the probability of a rate cut in July is now below 5%.. Some analysts believe there will be a certain demand for a correction in U.S. stocks this week.. (Expectation of a rate cut has not materialized)
Therefore, the focus going forward continues to return to tariffs. Although the 7.9 deadline has been pushed back to 8.1.. Whether it is the news of small countries kneeling and reaching an agreement, or the news of major countries hardening their stance and negotiations being stalled, it will further pull the pancake prices.

The news is dominant, making it difficult to predict the trend.. So following the news-driven approach, the idea of continuing to oscillate can still be extended...

Looking back at the weekend's thoughts.. The reference point for the large contract at 107400 still didn't materialize, I entered a high short below 109000 but it didn't reach the take profit point so I had to secure the capital.. I was careless..
Then let's continue to watch now..

First, let's look at the order flow. After the first attempt to break 109700 failed today, when it attempted again, the original 150 or so orders at 110,000 surged to 338. Considering that bookmap data has certain discrepancies (I have recently been comparing exchange data with bookmap data and found that the actual aggregated order volume on several major exchanges is about 1.5 to 2 times what is displayed on bookmap).
In summary, there is significant selling pressure at the 110,000 order level... Unfortunately, I was sleeping when it hit 109,700 for the second time, otherwise it would have been a great short point... (The success rate of reversal trades at large order positions has always been high, over 70%.)
Looking up the pending orders again, they are still 110500 and 111000...

From the perspective of liquidation liquidity, you can see the 110,000 pressure level, and there are indeed many people chasing shorts. Since the failure to break through 110,000 during the day today, a large wave of short liquidation liquidity has started to pile up near 111,000. There should be many traders shorting below 110,000 today. (Where there is liquidity, there is pressure to insert liquidity, so high short stop-losses cannot just be placed around 110,000 or a little above 111,000.)
Short-term long liquidations are still concentrated below 107200..

In terms of thinking, it feels difficult to do.. The high point of 110,000 may not necessarily provide opportunities... If there are opportunities, it depends on the news, if there is significant good news, then I won't engage, but in the absence of significant good news, it can be done around the 110,000 mark...
It's not easy to go long either; 108600 is quite a tough level. I'm still observing. Over the past hour here, the CVD has dropped by more than 500 (with over 500 active sell orders in spot that have been executed). However, the price hasn't broken through... There are iceberg orders hanging around to absorb these active sell orders...
But it still feels like it's at a relatively high position to rush in here; going long here seems quite aggressive.. Just see for yourself.. You might consider setting a very small stop loss for a move, and if it breaks this iceberg order, just run...
It's safer to look around 107300-107700.. (107700 is a dense trading area, 107200 has only been tested once and still has a chance to hold once more) If it breaks below 107000 and can't recover, it's time to run away..