BTC reaches a new all-time high, can the rise continue?

Bitcoin broke its previous high at the end of the U.S. stock market on July 9, refreshing its all-time high to nearly $112,000 per coin, with an intraday rise of nearly 3%. This breakthrough was driven by multiple factors, and there is a certain possibility of future price increases.

1. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations provide support.

The minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting show internal disagreements, but most participants believe that a rate cut this year may be appropriate, which has strengthened the market's expectations for future liquidity easing, benefiting risk assets such as Bitcoin.
1. Mainstream camp: Most believe that there may be a rate cut this year, but excluding an immediate rate cut in July, it is necessary to wait for inflation and the economic outlook to become clearer.
2. Hawkish camp: A minority believes that interest rates should not be lowered this year, as inflation data still exceeds the 2% target.
3. Dovish camp: A minority is willing to consider lowering interest rates at the next meeting if the data meets expectations.

2. Long-term holders maintain strong positions

1. Long-term holders hold 74% of the total supply of Bitcoin, demonstrating their strong belief in the market and providing support for it.
2, Since July 2024, the balance of Bitcoin on exchanges has been steadily declining, with investors tending to hold for the long term, reducing market selling pressure. If history repeats itself, there may be further space for a bull market.

3. The technical analysis shows potential for a rise.

1. Bitcoin is in a clear rising channel, highly consistent with the Fibonacci channel since 2013. The top of the "bull flag" has turned into a support level, which is a strong bullish signal, and the price continues to stay above the 50-day simple moving average.
2. Analysts predict that the "bull flag" breakout technically targets a price of $168,500; if it follows the fractal pattern with the M2 money supply, there may be a parabolic rise after the consolidation period ends; the current cycle is similar to the bull markets of 2017 and 2021, indicating potential for significant upward movement; if it follows the 2020 pattern, prices may peak in October.

In summary, macroeconomic benefits, institutional adoption, and listed companies accumulating coins resonate to drive Bitcoin to new highs. Long-term holders remain steadfast, and from the perspective of market momentum, there may be a stronger rise in the second half of the year.
$BTC