"When Institutions Take Center Stage: The Billion-Dollar Layout and New Market Ecology Behind Bitcoin's Surge"

Behind the recent strong rise of Bitcoin, a distinct market differentiation picture is emerging: retail investors tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude, while institutions have quietly laid out assets worth billions, becoming the core driving force of this market trend.

From a macro perspective, the June inflation indicators in the United States convey a moderate signal. The CPI annual rate of 2.7% meets expectations, rising slightly from the previous value of 2.4%; the core CPI annual rate of 2.9% is below the expected 3.0%, marking five consecutive months of growth below expectations. The PPI shows even greater weakness, with an annual rate of 2.3% not only below the expected 2.5% but also hitting a new low since September 2024 (the previous value was revised from 2.6% to 2.7%). Goldman Sachs analysis indicates that current potential inflationary pressures are easing. If this trend continues, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts in the fall is not small, providing a supportive expectation for risk assets including cryptocurrencies.

The dynamics at the regulatory level are also worth paying attention to. The Federal Reserve, in conjunction with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, recently issued guidance clarifying that banks can provide custody services for crypto assets in both trust and non-trust capacities, but must strengthen the security management of encryption keys and risk management frameworks (covering anti-money laundering, third-party cooperation audits, etc.). The voting in the U.S. House of Representatives regarding the cryptocurrency bill has been tumultuous: a procedural vote on Tuesday did not pass, preventing stablecoin-related bills from moving forward for consideration; however, progress was reported early Thursday morning, as the procedural vote was eventually passed, with a final vote expected to take place within this week. Trump also publicly expressed support for the relevant legislation, stating that the GENIUS Act aims to make the U.S. a leader in the digital asset space, emphasizing that "digital assets represent the future."

The intensive layout of institutions has become the focus of the market. Data shows that the assets under management of BTC spot ETFs have surpassed $150 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT reaching $88 billion. Bloomberg analysts predict it is expected to exceed $100 billion this summer. The influx of funds remains strong, with over $400 million flowing into the US BTC spot ETF on July 15 alone, nearly $200 million into the ETH spot ETF, and $3.3 million into the Solana spot ETF. In addition to ETFs, traditional financial institutions are accelerating their entry: Standard Chartered Bank has launched BTC and ETH spot services for institutional clients through its UK branch, becoming a typical player in the crypto spot market among globally systemically important banks; Tether holds over $127 billion in US Treasury bonds as of Q2 2025, further solidifying the asset support behind its stablecoin.

In terms of market structure, the characteristics of supply and demand imbalance have become increasingly evident. 21Shares strategist Matt Mena pointed out that the current surge in demand for cryptocurrencies and the contraction in supply have created a structural contradiction, narrowing the long-term pullback space and making the fundamentals of BTC more "tight." On-chain data shows that SharpLink Gaming increased its holdings by approximately 74,700 ETH from July 7 to 13, bringing its total holdings to 280,000, with the buying actions of large institutions continuing to manifest.

In contrast to the active positioning of institutions, retail investors remain calm. André Dragosch, the research director at Bitwise, observed that the search interest for "Bitcoin" on Google has not significantly increased, even though BTC has reached an all-time high, and retail investors' willingness to enter the market remains low, which is starkly different from the scene in previous bull markets where retail investors rushed in.

Regarding the subsequent trend, opinions in the industry present a diverse forecast. Markus Thielen from 10x Research believes that historical data shows that assets typically rise about 20% on average within two months after reaching an all-time high. Based on this, he speculates that BTC may consolidate in the short term and is expected to reach $160,000 by the end of the year. Bernstein emphasizes that this round is a "long and grueling institutional bull," and BTC may reach $200,000 by the end of 2025 to early 2026. However, Jack Yi, founder of LD Capital, warns of risks: when the market is filled with the fear of missing out (FOMO) sentiment, caution is needed regarding leverage risk, and he suggests waiting for clearer expectations of interest rate cuts in August and September before seeking opportunities.

In the long term, July concentrated multiple variables such as the controversy over the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, the contest for Powell's successor, and the advancement of cryptocurrency legislation. Short-term fluctuations may be difficult to avoid, but the market consensus on long-term benefits is strengthening. As history shows, the Federal Reserve's easing cycle often leads to a broad rise in risk assets – the market trends of 2020-2021 have already confirmed this. With more inflation data expected to be released in August and September, the path for interest rate cuts may become clearer. If liquidity easing arrives as anticipated, the cryptocurrency market is likely to continue its structural rise. Of course, amidst optimistic expectations, risk prevention remains an essential premise. #比特币巨鲸动向#