Geopolitical risks impact the crypto market, Bitcoin approaches the hundred thousand dollar mark

Recently, the United States launched strikes on three nuclear facilities in Iran, triggering severe fluctuations in the crypto market. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin dropped to a low of $100,866, nearing the psychological barrier of $100,000; Ethereum fell to a low of $2,215, with a 24-hour drop of nearly 6.67%; other mainstream and small market cap tokens generally saw declines between 4% and 8%.

The derivatives market has suffered a heavy blow, with liquidations across the network reaching as high as $675 million in the past 24 hours, of which long positions accounted for $595 million. The liquidation amounts for Ethereum and Bitcoin reached $275 million and $151 million, respectively, ranking first and second. The market sentiment index has dropped from 49 (good) to 42 (fearful), reflecting a setback in investor confidence.

However, large funds have not completely withdrawn from the market. Analysts found that a previously accurate large holder who bought Ethereum has once again purchased 13,498 ETH this morning, worth over 30 million dollars. Since June 11, this investor has accumulated over 130,000 ETH, although he is currently facing a floating loss of nearly 40 million dollars.

At the same time, short-selling forces are also gathering. A large holder has established short positions in 58 cryptocurrencies since June 16, and the overall floating profit has exceeded 20.65 million dollars, among which the floating profit of the ETH short position has reached 4.2 million dollars, showing the most outstanding performance.

This sudden geopolitical conflict once again highlights Bitcoin's characteristic as a "volatility amplifier" rather than a "safe-haven gold." Market attention will shift to a comprehensive assessment of the Federal Reserve's policy path and the direction of regional situations.

Despite Iran stating that its nuclear facilities have been evacuated in advance and the U.S. indicating that there are no further strike plans, the situation in the Middle East remains uncertain. The market is pricing in potential risks rather than final outcomes.

The macro level is also confusing. Although the Federal Reserve has started a rate-cutting cycle, several officials have recently released "hawkish" signals, suggesting that the pace of future rate cuts may slow down. Long-term U.S. Treasury yields have risen, the U.S. dollar index has strengthened again, and the global financial environment is becoming more conservative, with the crypto market being the first to bear the brunt as a high-risk asset.

Analysts have pointed out that although inflation has eased, concerns about stagflation have arisen due to the slowdown in U.S. economic growth. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell remains optimistic about the inflation trend, but strong employment and consumption data provide a reason to maintain high interest rates. Bitcoin, as a decentralized and borderless digital asset, may attract capital inflows in this context.

On the other hand, the on-chain capital movements of Ethereum indicate that the market may be restructuring the "mainstream asset consensus". Factors such as continuous accumulation by institutions, traditional companies incorporating ETH into reserves, and a more lenient regulatory attitude may make ETH a new "safe haven value anchor".

The future price trend of Bitcoin will mainly depend on three factors:

1. Will the geopolitical situation further escalate?
2. Has the Federal Reserve's liquidity policy shifted?
3. Does the Bitcoin technical aspect break the bull market structure?

From a game theory perspective, the current market resembles a dual washout of "liquidity + sentiment" rather than the end of a bull market. Some believe that the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional risk assets is weakening, and in the future, prices will be more influenced by on-chain structures, institutional layouts, and policy games.

The crypto market is entering a new cycle full of variables. Macroeconomic risks and geopolitical conflicts are intertwined, coupled with high asset prices, making market sentiment exceptionally sensitive. However, behind the severe fluctuations, both bulls and bears are actively positioning themselves, with large funds continuously entering the market, indicating that the market is undergoing a re-game rather than a complete escape.

Next, whether Bitcoin can hold the $100,000 level, whether Ethereum will become the new "safe haven axis", and whether small-cap tokens will continue to be marginalized still need time to verify. During this period of uncertainty, investors should remain vigilant and closely monitor market trends.