Can Ethereum (ETH) break through $4000? In-depth analysis of bullish and bearish factors.

Bullish Reasons: Three Major Drivers for ETH to Hit $4000
Institutional funds are entering in large amounts.
Since the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF in July 2024, institutional funds have been continuously pouring in.
On July 16 alone, the net inflow of ETFs reached $717 million, with BlackRock's ETHA accounting for $489 million.
Public companies such as SharpLink Gaming are actively increasing their holdings of ETH, with a total holding of 353,000 coins (approximately $1.4 billion), indicating strong market confidence.
The technical analysis has released a strong bullish signal.
ETH has broken through the key resistance level of 3400 USD, the 50-day moving average is trending upwards, and the target is set at 3750-4000 USD.
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is close to 80, indicating that market sentiment has entered the "greed" zone, which may be overbought in the short term, but upward momentum remains.
ETH/USD has formed an ascending triangle pattern, and if it breaks through successfully, $4000 may be the next target.
Fundamentals continue to optimize, long-term value remains solid.
The Pectra upgrade (scheduled for completion in May 2025) enhances network performance and strengthens the ecosystem's competitiveness in DeFi, NFTs, and more.
EIP-1559 continuously burns ETH, reducing the circulating supply, which is beneficial for the price in the long term.
If the trend continues, ETH may challenge the historical high of 2021 (4864 USD).
Short-term forecast:
If the capital inflow and market sentiment are maintained, the 3750-4120 USD range may be tested by the end of July, and it may even break through 4000 USD.
Cautious Perspective: Potential Risks and Challenges
Technical pullback risk
RSI is approaching the overbought zone (80+), and historical data shows that a high RSI may lead to a pullback.
$4000 is a strong psychological resistance level since 2021, and it requires sustained volume to effectively break through; otherwise, it may pull back to the support zone of $3200-$3250.
Market volatility and macro uncertainty
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, with macro factors such as Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical conflicts potentially triggering short-term sell-offs.
Some analysts believe that if there are no new catalysts, ETH may pull back to the range of 2000-2400 USD by the end of 2025.
Conclusion: Bullish in the short term, but watch out for risks.
Optimistic scenario: If institutional funds continue to flow in + technical patterns confirm a breakout, ETH is expected to challenge 4000 USD in July.
Cautious scenario: If there is a pullback or macroeconomic negative news, it may retrace to 3200 USD or even lower.
Key observation points: ETF fund flows, whether the RSI corrects, overall market risk appetite. #PI# #BTC# #ETH#