Goldman Sachs predicts that the increase in U.S. tariffs will intensify inflationary pressures, suppressing GDP growth.

[BitPush] Goldman Sachs' Chief Economist for the U.S., David Mericle, expects that the basic "reciprocal" tariff rate in the U.S. will be raised from 10% to 15%, with tariffs on copper and key minerals reaching 50%—a move that could exacerbate inflationary pressures and suppress economic growth. To reflect the new tariff assumptions and incorporate the impact of import tariffs in the "initial observation," Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecasts for U.S. inflation and GDP growth rates accordingly. Goldman Sachs has lowered its core inflation forecast for 2025 from 3.4% to 3.3%, raised its forecast for 2026 from 2.6% to 2.7%, and raised its forecast for 2027 from 2.0% to 2.4%. Mericle stated that tariffs are expected to cumulatively push up core prices by 1.7% over the next 2-3 years. He added that tariffs will reduce GDP growth by 1 percentage point this year, 0.4 percentage points in 2026, and 0.3 percentage points in 2027. Accordingly, Goldman Sachs has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1%.