The wedge breakout opportunity and key support bottoming strategy of Ethereum data under weekly fluctuations.

Core logic and risk response during the data week

• Data release fluctuation warning: This week is data week (including tonight's 8:30 PCE and unemployment claims data), fluctuations are intensifying, and "spikes" are likely to occur—it's recommended to close positions 1 hour before the data release or not to open new positions to avoid being stopped out by intermediate fluctuations, and to wait for opportunities after the U.S. stock market opens to reduce emotional trading;

• Fibonacci 1:1 support and wedge fluctuation: The early morning retest at the hour-level Fibonacci 1:1 target gained support and rebounded, currently fluctuating within the wedge—if it breaks above the upper boundary of the wedge + the key level indicated by the white arrow, it will directly target $3940; if it cannot break, it will continue to retrace, with $3827 being the 4-hour level support line for the upward trend, and a break would indicate a further retracement.

Key Point Trading Strategy

• Long conditions:

1. Volume breakout at $3865 → enter long on the right side, target $3880 → $3910, stop loss on break.

2. Stand firm at 3880 USD → Increase long positions, looking at 3966 → 4020 USD, "strong" rise requires volume support;

3. Wedge breakout confirmation → Follow up to $4020, breaking the neckline at $3827 and maintaining that position is a prerequisite;

4. Re-test after breaking below $3743 → decisive long position ("there's a big hand supporting it", stop loss reference pin low point).

• Shorting conditions:

1. Volume drops below $3855 → short on the right side, target $3827 → $3767, pullback cannot recover stop loss;

2. Break below $3827 on the 4-hour level → increase short positions, looking down to $3720, clear pullback signal;

3. Wedge upper boundary encounters resistance → light position short, stop loss if the wedge breaks, do not counter the breakout trend.

The practical significance of patterns and support.

• The bottom effect of 3743 USD: Multiple pin bars have not broken, indicating strong support. "Breaking and then recovering" is a bullish signal, so feel free to test the long position, relying on support for a high cost-performance ratio;

• Neckline position and wedge resonance:

◦ Stand firm at the 3827 neckline + break through the wedge, with dual signal confirmation, the upward momentum is sufficient, targeting the 4000 dollar integer level, with a need to pay close attention to the volume changes after the data release.

Summary: Ethereum data requires caution against spike inserts. Core operation: Break through $3865 to chase long positions, rely on $3827 to prevent pullbacks, and consider bottoming out at $3743 for long attempts. The wedge breakout is the key to takeoff, and control positions in advance to protect capital.