Market Changes After Bitcoin Halving: Mining Income Decreases, Large Holding Addresses Increase

Bitcoin completed its 4th Halving on April 20, reducing the block reward to 3.125 BTC. This Halving had a direct impact on Mining, as miner income significantly decreased in the short term. At the same time, the Halving also affected Bitcoin's inflation rate, with market expectations that increased scarcity would drive up coin prices. However, the reality is that since the Halving, Bitcoin has been consolidating at high levels, with a slight price drop of 3.87%, which has put pressure on miners and left some short-term investors facing losses.

Each Halving is essentially a process of rebalancing market supply and demand. During this process, there are several market trends worth noting:

1. Since March, the proportion of Bitcoin loss-making chips has risen from 1.28% to 15.18%. After the Halving, the average SOPR index for short-term investors is 0.99972, indicating that some short-term investors may be experiencing losses due to Halving expectations.

2. After the Halving, the circulation rate of on-chain tokens decreased by 23%, with more chips in the accumulation stage. From a time period perspective, since the beginning of this year, the number of chip holdings for 1-3 months, 3-6 months, and 3-5 years has significantly increased. From the balance of holding Addresses, the number of Addresses holding between 100-1000 BTC and 1000-10000 BTC has increased significantly by over 1.3%.

3. After the halving, miners face significant revenue pressure. Based on the current coin price and high electricity costs, the shutdown price has reached $55,000, a substantial increase from last year's lowest shutdown price of $14,300.

4. Currently, the total daily mining income is approximately 26.4871 million dollars, a decrease of 51.63% compared to the average daily income of 54.7623 million dollars before this year's halving. The current daily transaction fee is about 2.28 million dollars, a decrease of 34% compared to the average fee before the halving.

5. Assuming that the transaction fee income remains unchanged, to reach the average daily income level before the Halving, the coin price needs to rise to $94,489.82, an increase of 51.63% from the current price.

6. Assuming the coin price remains unchanged, to reach the daily average income level before the Halving, the number of daily transactions must reach 1,673,700 times, an increase of 202.49% compared to the average after the Halving; or the average transaction fee per transaction must reach 0.00080317 BTC, an increase of 206.08% compared to the average after the Halving.

7. The strong demand during the initial launch of Runes brought considerable profits to miners, contributing 881 BTC in fees on the first day.

After the halving, the overall network hash rate (7-day average) has significantly decreased. The current hash rate is 582.2 EH/s, down 7.43% compared to the day of the halving. The decline in hash rate exceeds the decline in coin price, which may indicate that some miners are shutting down their mining machines to maintain profit margins.

From the shutdown prices of different mining machines, miners are facing significant revenue pressure. In low electricity cost areas (0.07 USD/kWh), the shutdown prices of 31 models of mining machines are lower than the current coin price, allowing for profitability. Among them, the Antminer S21 Pro has the lowest shutdown price at 32,200 USD, with a daily net revenue of 5.52 USD. In high electricity cost areas (0.12 USD/kWh), only 3 models of mining machines can be profitable, with shutdown prices exceeding 55,200 USD.

If the coin price rises to $80,000, 45 types of mining machines can be profitable; if it rises to $100,000, 66 types of mining machines can be profitable. An increase in coin price will expand the range of mining machine options and configuration diversity for miners.

Currently, the demand for Bitcoin appears to be weak. The number of transactions related to Runes has decreased from the initial 463,600 to 79,400, resulting in a drop in transaction fees from 881 BTC to 4 BTC. The development of DeFi on the Bitcoin chain may stimulate more usage demand. The current TVL on the Bitcoin chain reaches $1.208 billion, growing by 296% since the beginning of the year, and stabilizing after the Halving. Among them, AINN Layer2 stands out, with a TVL of $590 million, becoming one of the main applications in the Bitcoin ecosystem.