Bitcoin bull run enters "silent strong period"! Legendary analyst predicts: mid-term target of $500,000, complete analysis of allocation strategy.

Senior Bitcoin economist Tuur Demeester and Adamant Research jointly released a report titled "How to Position for the Bitcoin Bull Run," pointing out that the current market is in the mid-phase of "the strongest bull run in history" — BTC Quiet Strength. The report predicts that BTC still has 4-10 times the upside potential, targeting a breakout above $500,000. On-chain data reveals that Whale holdings are stable, and the unrealized net profit/loss ( NUPL ) indicator is healthy, eliminating risks typical of the end of a bull run. Despite potential headwinds such as centralized custody on exchanges and Black Swan Events, the report emphasizes that Bitcoin's hedging attributes have received backing from U.S. policy (national strategic reserves, Spot ETF holding 1.4 million BTC), and advises investors to focus on BTC allocation, discarding alts.

Mid-term bull run confirmed: Three key on-chain indicators rule out peak risk

• Whales remain inactive, no selling pressure signals present: From 2025 to the present, Bitcoin on-chain data shows that the net daily movement of long-term holders (HODLers) has never exceeded 100,000 coins, which is drastically different from the "mass profit-taking" pattern seen at the end of historical bull runs. Even during the turbulent period of the US elections when BTC retraced to previous highs, whales only made minimal transfers, confirming the stability of Bitcoin holdings.
• NUPL indicator is healthy, away from the frenzy stage: The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss ratio (NUPL) is currently in the 50%-70% range, indicating that more than half of BTC holdings are in a profit state. This level aligns with the characteristics of the mid-stage of a bull run, far from the "excessive greed" bubble threshold (usually >75%), eliminating the risk of a Bitcoin bull run ending.
• The resistance to negative impacts has been validated: Major Black Swan Events have limited effects on BTC: The theft of 120,000 BTC from Bitfinex in 2016 had almost no impact on coin prices; the liquidation of 80,000 BTC by Mt.Gox creditors in July 2025 only caused a 4% fluctuation. The report emphasizes: "Only extreme events could interrupt the bull run," and currently, U.S. policies are actively integrating Bitcoin (such as the GENIUS Act), with very low custodial risk probability.

Target $500,000: Three Core Engines Driving Value Storage Demand

• Fiat Currency System Trust Crisis: Ongoing inflation, ballooning fiscal deficits, the collapse of the safe-haven property of bonds, and the decline of real estate's hedging function are forcing funds to shift towards low counterparty risk assets. Bitcoin, with its network effects, security, and monetary purity, has become the preferred choice for "long-term value storage."
• U.S. Policies Ignite Institutional Wave: Since El Salvador adopted BTC as legal tender in 2021, the U.S. has accelerated its embrace of Bitcoin—establishing a National Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, with Spot ETF Holdings reaching 1.4 million BTC (accounting for 6.7% of circulation), and pensions gradually being included in allocations. These measures are triggering a global policy ripple effect.
• The Ultimate Protocol Status Crushing Altcoins: The report has completely shifted to a "pure Bitcoin strategy," discarding the recommendation to allocate to altcoins from 2015. The author likens BTC to the "internet foundational layer protocol," asserting that Ethereum, Ripple, Cardano, and others will gradually become marginalized due to their lack of BTC's anti-censorship currency attributes and network barriers.

Practical Configuration Guide: From Insurance Strategies to Retirement Plans

• Position Ratio Layering Suggestions:
  • 5% allocation: "insurance strategy" to hedge against systemic risks
  • 10% Allocation: "Active Hedge Position" in a Diversified Portfolio
  • 20-50% allocation: "Early Retirement Plan" for high conviction investors
• Best Custody Solution: The first choice for beginners is Collaborative Multi-Sig, balancing asset self-holding and operational security. At the same time, it warns of the risk of mainstream CEX holding 10% of the supply, but the ETF issuers are diversifying custodians to reduce risks.

Medium-term positioning: Waiting for the key stage of a historic breakthrough The report reiterates that we are currently in the "Bitcoin mid-cycle", far from the peak. If Bitcoin continues to fulfill its promise as "digital gold", it will reshape the global financial system in the coming years. Short-term macro fluctuations (such as economic downturns) may cause price volatility, but in the long run, Bitcoin is still expected to outperform commodities and inflation rates.

Conclusion: Tuur Demeester argues from both on-chain data and policy trends that Bitcoin is currently in the most solid mid-term accumulation phase in its history, and the $500,000 target is not a castle in the air. Investors need to be wary of the "altcoin trap" and focus on the core narrative of value storage in Bitcoin, layering their investments according to risk tolerance. The favorable winds of U.S. policy have ignited a tsunami of institutional allocation, and the end of this "quiet strong period" may be marked by Bitcoin reaching the pinnacle of global assets.