ETH hourly cycle pullback

Strategy: Short at 4300-4315, stop loss above 4330, targets 4250, 4150, 4000.
Core viewpoint summary: Currently, the market ETH is in a [range oscillation].
Technical core drivers: The price is close to the strong resistance level of 3864.49, moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, but trading volume has severely shrunk, creating a divergence between price and volume.
External Environment Impact: Market sentiment is neutral, with no significant pressure or positive factors in the macro environment, and mixed news.
Main potential risks: The trading volume is significantly lower than the average volume, indicating insufficient market momentum and making it difficult to break through resistance levels.
1. Overall Analysis and Judgment The current ETH market is in a low volatility range and oscillating state. The technical indicators show that the price is approaching a strong resistance level of 3864.49, with moving averages in a bullish arrangement. The short-term trend looks bullish, but trading volume has significantly decreased, leading to a divergence between volume and price. This indicates insufficient market momentum, and the rebound space may be limited. At the same time, the candlestick pattern has shown a bullish engulfing signal, suggesting that there may still be a rebound in the short term, but caution is needed regarding the risk of a pullback after a failed breakthrough of the resistance level.
In terms of the external environment, market sentiment is neutral, with no significant pressure or favorable conditions in the macro environment, and there are no major event risks recently. The news is mixed, with some assets performing strongly, but the overall cryptocurrency market still faces regulatory challenges. This external environment aligns with the technical aspects, further confirming that the current market is in a state of fluctuation.
2. Key Evidence Interpretation Technical Diagnosis Market Status Identification: The current market is identified as "range oscillation".
Key Findings:
The price is approaching the strong resistance level of 3864.49, while the moving averages are in a bullish arrangement. The short-term trend is bullish, but momentum is weakening.
The trading volume has significantly decreased, well below the average volume, forming a divergence between volume and price, indicating a lack of market momentum.
The candlestick pattern shows a bullish engulfing signal, and a rebound may occur in the short term, but attention should be paid to the resistance level breakout situation.
Macroeconomic and sentiment diagnosis overall environment rating: The external environment is rated as "neutral".
Core evidence:
Market sentiment is neutral, with the Fear & Greed Index showing no obvious bias.
Macroeconomic pressure is neutral, with no significant changes in the dollar index and government bond yields.
The news is mixed with both bullish and bearish signals, some assets are performing strongly, but the overall cryptocurrency market still faces high risks and regulatory challenges. #ETH#