ETH 2025 Price Prediction: A Multi-Perspective Analysis of the Possibility of Hitting the 10,000 Yuan Threshold

The price of Ethereum (ETH) has rebounded from its low in April and has now surpassed the $4500 mark. The Bitcoin ETF in 2024 ignites the fuse for a bull market, and in 2025, it may be Ethereum's turn to shine. This article analyzes the possibility of ETH reaching the $10,000 milestone from six dimensions.

1. ETH/BTC Ratio Analysis

The ETH/BTC ratio has been relatively stable over the long term, but the current value of 0.0372 is at a lower position in the nearly 5-year history, suggesting that ETH may be undervalued. Based on the average of 0.0518 over the past five years, if BTC stays at $120,000, the corresponding ETH price would be $6,214. Referring to the previous bull market ratio range of 0.06-0.08, the ETH price could reach $7,200-$9,600.

2. Impact of ETFs and Institutional Holdings

The Ethereum spot ETF position has reached approximately 6 million ETH, accounting for 4.96% of the circulating supply. 70 institutional entities hold about 3.49 million ETH, accounting for 2.89%. After deducting staked and locked assets, the free circulating supply is only around 75.1 million.

If the ETF and institutional holdings increase to 10%, the circulating supply will shrink to 72.52 million pieces, corresponding to a price of about 4647 USD; if it reaches 15%, the price could rise to 5070 USD; if it reaches 20%, the price could approach 6000 USD.

3. Application of Metcalfe's Law

According to Metcalfe's law, the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of active users. Currently, the number of daily active addresses is approximately 970,000. If it increases to 1,000,000, the price could rise to $4,768; if it reaches 1,100,000, the price could rise to $5,769; if it optimistically reaches 1,300,000, the price could rise to $8,058.

4. NVT Model Valuation

The NVT model is similar to a crypto version of the price-to-earnings ratio. Assuming that in 6 months the NVT is between 70-90, with a daily transfer amount of 700-1200 million USD, the ETH price may be in the range of 4059-8947 USD. If, after 12 months, the NVT is between 75-100, with a daily transfer amount of 800-1400 million USD, the ETH price may be in the range of 4971-11598 USD.

5. On-chain Cash Flow Model

Based on on-chain transaction fees and other "income", asset management company VanEck predicts that the price of ETH may approach $6000 in 2025 and could rise to around $11800 by 2030.

6. Technical Analysis Outlook

From the K-line technical analysis, the ETH price still maintains an upward structure on the 4-hour level. The daily ASR channel shows signs of a breakthrough, and if it successfully breaks through, it may directly reach the daily overbought line of approximately 5600 dollars. Overall, there is a possibility for ETH to challenge the 6000 dollar mark in the medium term.

Analyst Forecast Summary

Multiple analysts have made the following price predictions for ETH by the end of 2025:

• Base case: $6000-$7000
• Optimistic scenario: 10,000-12,000 USD
• Extremely optimistic: $15,000-$16,000

Conclusion

Considering various valuation methods, ETH is likely to reach the range of $6000-8000 by 2025. If market sentiment remains high and on-chain activity continues to grow, breaking through $10000 is not impossible. In an extremely optimistic scenario, it could reach the range of $12000-15000.

ETH, as a foundational infrastructure for the crypto ecosystem, has established a foothold in multiple value pricing systems. However, prices are influenced by various factors and can be highly volatile, so investors should make cautious decisions and bear the risks themselves.