Monthly Analysis of the Crypto Assets Market in June 2024

Market Review

Bitcoin: Price Increase and Positive Sentiment

July is an important month for Bitcoin, with significant improvements in price and market sentiment. Investors continue to accumulate Crypto Assets, and institutional participation has increased. The University of Wyoming has established a Bitcoin Research Institute, and a financial company has announced plans to launch Bitcoin financing services, allowing clients to utilize their BTC holdings.

In terms of politics, Trump reiterated his support for the industry at the Bitcoin 2024 conference, proposing to move Bitcoin mining to the United States, and announced the establishment of a related presidential advisory committee. A senator proposed a bill to establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve aimed at reducing U.S. debt. It was reported that the vice president's team also engaged with representatives from the Crypto Assets industry to improve relations.

Overall, July brought a wave of positive news and actions that boosted Bitcoin's market performance and investor confidence.

Ethereum: ETF approval drives price increase

On July 23, the Ethereum ETF was approved and began trading, marking an important milestone in the development of Ethereum. The first day performance of the ETH spot ETF exceeded expectations, with a net inflow of over $100 million and a total trading volume exceeding $1.1 billion, approximately one-quarter of the trading volume of the BTC spot ETF on its first day.

Although there was a significant net outflow the next day, mainly due to large redemptions from a certain Ethereum trust fund, overall, ETH's performance still exceeded expectations. This may reflect the market's high expectations for future net inflows of ETH spot ETFs, or it may be a technical rebound.

Overall, July witnessed a significant rise in Ethereum prices and market sentiment, primarily driven by ETF approvals and changes in the policy environment.

Altcoins: Performance varies widely

In July, the altcoin market displayed an uneven performance. Some altcoins achieved significant gains, such as MANTRA( +64.8%), HNT( +53.2%), JUP( +41.4%), SOL( +33%), mainly due to the positive developments within their respective ecosystems.

However, there are also some altcoins that have experienced price declines, such as FLR(-21.8%), FTM(-16.7%), LDO(-15.0%), etc. Overall, although some altcoins have performed well, investor sentiment remains cautious, possibly looking for signs of sustained growth.

It is worth noting that the monthly trading volume of the decentralized exchange (DEX) has reached an all-time high compared to the centralized exchange (CEX), a trend that contrasts with the decline in CEX trading volume.

Macroeconomic Environment Analysis

stock market adjustment

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq experienced a significant pullback in mid-July after a strong rally. Although this adjustment was severe, it can be viewed as a natural retreat from the highs. The market is currently at a crossroads, with signals of economic slowdown coexisting with strong business conditions, coupled with political uncertainty, which keeps investors cautious.

Federal Reserve policy trends

The Federal Reserve Chairman recently discussed the outlook for the U.S. economy, stating that no decision has been made regarding a potential interest rate cut in September. The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring inflation and employment data to guide future decisions. In June, U.S. job openings exceeded expectations, indicating that the slowdown in the job market is still in its early stages.

China Economic Policy

China has recently implemented a slight interest rate cut, indicating the government's intention to cautiously stimulate the loan market. The policy focus has shifted to "quality growth" and avoiding aggressive fiscal measures. The Third Plenary Session emphasized the transition to a "socialist market economy," including flexible real estate rules and support for private enterprises, with a particular emphasis on technological innovation.

Japan Crypto Assets ETF and Monetary Policy

Japan is set to launch its first Crypto Assets ETF, driven by collaboration with well-known financial institutions. This move is expected to attract a large number of retail investors, especially considering the tax advantages of ETFs compared to directly holding Crypto Assets.

At the same time, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates for the first time in nearly 20 years, increasing it by 0.15 basis points. This move indicates a shift in Japan's monetary policy management, which may have an impact on global markets.

Conclusion

In July, both the Crypto Assets and traditional financial markets experienced significant developments. Bitcoin and Ethereum showed volatility, driven by positive regulatory news and new financial products such as ETFs. The altcoin market performed variably, reflecting investors' differing attitudes towards various projects.

Looking ahead to August, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate and be full of opportunities. The Crypto Assets sector is changing rapidly, and investors are advised to stay updated on the latest developments and conduct in-depth research to make informed decisions.