#打榜优质内容#

PPI is much stronger than expected, and interest rate cuts have become a "luxury."

The recent US PPI directly added a few creases to Wall Street's "rate cut dream." The PPI far exceeded expectations, and it is not just an economic data point but a stress test for the Federal Reserve: are you willing to stimulate the market when costs are rising?

The reasoning is quite simple: the PPI reflects the price trends on the production side. A sharp rise indicates that corporate costs are high, which will eventually pass through to the CPI, leading consumers to tighten their wallets. The Federal Reserve originally intended to lower interest rates in September to boost the economy, but now it feels like suddenly increasing the speed on a treadmill; you are afraid of being thrown off even if you want to slow down.

From the trader's perspective, the awkward point of PPI exceeding expectations is that the faster the interest rate cuts, the higher the risk of inflation rebounding; the slower the interest rate cuts, the greater the risk of a hard landing for the economy. It's like turning off the heating in winter makes it cold, but turning it up too much fears skyrocketing electricity bills; no matter how you adjust it, there are complaints all around.

Market expectations may adjust to: the probability of a rate cut in September has decreased, but the window remains open for November or December. This is because employment data has not completely collapsed, and inflation data is not entirely out of control; the Federal Reserve can still "play dead" for a while. However, once employment turns downward, a rate cut will become a politically necessary task.

The cryptocurrency circle may instead treat this macro fluctuation as a "positive" to hype: volatility means opportunity, and opportunity means the speed of harvesting retail investors is faster. Although the PPI is hot, funds can always find a chilled place—such as the swing arbitrage of BTC and ETH.