August 15, #机器人实战策略参考#

1. Market Judgment and Strategy Selection
Bitcoin's technical signals are currently mixed. The daily Bollinger Bands have slightly opened and then flattened out. The MACD is close to the zero line and has a tendency towards a death cross, but it has not been confirmed, indicating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. After a volume decline, there has been a continuous decrease in volume, which may lead to a range-bound fluctuation between $117,000 and $120,000.

On the 4-hour chart, the lower Bollinger Band is expanding downwards and the price has touched the lower band. The MACD shows a death cross followed by a decrease in volume, indicating that bearish momentum is weakening in the short term, but a rebound requires a breakthrough of $120,500.

From a broader perspective, yesterday's PPI year-on-year surged to 3.3% (far exceeding the expected 2.5%), weakening expectations for a Fed rate cut, leading BTC to lead the market into a sharp drop, with 210,000 people liquidated within 24 hours. The market is currently digesting this data and awaiting Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22. If hawkish signals are released, it may trigger further selling pressure.

In the short term, Bitcoin is bearish and fluctuating, testing the key support level of $116,000. If it breaks below, it may drop to $113,500.

The ETH/BTC exchange rate has broken through the 365-day moving average, showing relative strength; however, the 4-hour RSI is oversold and net inflows to exchanges are increasing, indicating short-term selling pressure. Support is seen at $4,400, and resistance is at $4,720.

From the perspective of ETF capital flow, Ethereum ETF has seen a net inflow of $2.2 billion for three consecutive days (far exceeding BTC's $330 million), but after a single-day inflow of $1 billion, there was a sell-off of call options, indicating that some funds are locking in profits.

Moreover, ETH's decline after the PPI data release was greater than that of BTC, due to concentrated leveraged positions, and caution is needed regarding on-chain liquidations triggered by expectations of tightening liquidity.

The current robot strategy that complies is a combination strategy: BTC/USDT spot Martingale + ETHUSDT contract grid short.

2. Recommended Practical Strategies

Strategy Recommendation 1: Short-term weakness but clear support level, can arrange BTC/USDT spot Martingale.
How much to add to the position when it drops: 1.5%;
Maximum number of add positions: 6;
Take profit ratio per round: 2%;

Strategy Recommendation 2: Possible reversal weakening, you can lay out an ETHUSDT contract grid for shorting.
Price range: $4320 - $4820;
Leverage: 5x;
Number of grids: 40
Estimated strategy execution time: August 15 - August 25;

Warm reminder: The above content is for reference only and should not be considered as investment advice. You can refer to more information to make reasonable investment decisions.

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