Is the Fed's interest rate cut in September just a "pie in the sky"?

1. The Fed's "hard bottom line": No rate cuts without solid data. Despite Trump's appointment of some dovish officials, the core members like Powell have made it clear: rate cuts must wait until inflation "truly recedes" and will not be swayed by the speculative enthusiasm in the crypto circle. The risk of inflation rebounding far outweighs short-term sentiment; policies are based on data, not "slogans."

2. Inflation "shows signs of cooling": core pressures remain, and interest rate cuts are like "adding fuel to the fire". Although CPI and PPI have softened slightly, core inflation remains high, and the root causes of rising prices have not been eliminated. A hasty interest rate cut in September is equivalent to "flooding the market," which may bring inflation back, and subsequent policy reversals will exacerbate volatility in the cryptocurrency market.

3. The economy's "resilience remains": no recession signals, no need for rate cuts. Strong employment and rising wages in the U.S. indicate no obvious signs of recession. The Fed's interest rate cuts are a "market rescue tool," but there is currently no "firefighting demand." Dollar liquidity is unlikely to loosen in the short term, and the capital situation in the crypto space remains constrained.

4. Market "expectations overheated": speculation has created a bubble, and chasing rises can easily lead to being trapped. Investors have early bet on "interest rate cuts" as a "salvation remedy," with capital in the crypto circle following suit to inflate the bubble. However, the Fed "policy looks at data," and once expectations fall through, those chasing the rises can easily become the "bag holders."

5. Global "entangled risks": external complexities, policy hard to loosen. Global economic recovery is weak, geopolitical tensions are high, and Fed policies are more cautious—loosening monetary policy at this time may exacerbate domestic risks, as macroeconomic instability itself is a potential hidden danger in the cryptocurrency sector.

Practical advice for the crypto space:

① The short-term funding situation is tight, and contract operations should be cautious of risks;

② Monitor inflation and employment data for the second half of the year, waiting for "solid signals";

③ Strictly control positions to avoid being "cut by emotions";

④ Pay attention to the Fed's meeting minutes and officials' speeches to anticipate the direction.