DOGE Price Prediction: DOGE Strives to Break Through the $0.21 Mark, Whale Movements and Derivation Weakness are Key Variables

This week started with DOGE rising about 5% as the overall Crypto Assets market experienced a Rebound, showing initial signs of recovery. After a Depth pullback of up to 35% over the past two weeks, this top Meme coin is challenging the key resistance level of $0.21. However, the derivatives market and on-chain data indicate a clear range-bound between bulls and bears, with the short-term trend filled with uncertainties.

DOGE Derivatives and On-Chain Data: Weak Recovery but No Complete Sell-Off Observed

Although the DOGE price has seen a rebound, the open interest (OI) in futures contracts has declined from 19.69 billion DOGE to 15.36 billion DOGE since mid-July, reflecting a decrease in trading enthusiasm. The financing rate has continued to remain sluggish after a previous overheating, indicating a cooling of speculative sentiment.

According to Santiment data, "whales" holding between 10 million to 100 million DOGE have cumulatively sold over 740 million DOGE since July 17, adding pressure to the downtrend. Nevertheless, the total trading volume of DOGE futures has only decreased by 37% within 24 hours, and the OI remains stable around 3 billion dollars, indicating that some traders choose to continue observing rather than completely exiting the market.

Technical Analysis: $0.21 resistance becomes a key watershed

From the technical chart perspective, DOGE has rebounded from the downtrend line since December 2024 and is currently testing the resistance area at 0.21. This position is simultaneously reinforced by the 50-day EMA and the 200-day SMA. If it can effectively break through, it is expected to open up upward space towards 0.26~0.28.

In terms of momentum indicators, the Stoch RSI indicator is rebounding from the oversold area, and the RSI is also testing the neutral level. If both break through simultaneously, it may trigger a new round of strong rebound. Conversely, if DOGE falls below the 0.18 USD support, the risk of dropping to 0.14~0.15 USD increases.

Macroeconomic Environment and Market Sentiment: Risk Appetite Under Pressure, But Bulls Still Have Hope

Recently, U.S. President Trump announced new tariffs on goods from multiple countries, coupled with the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates, leading to a flow of funds towards safer assets, which suppressed the performance of high-risk Crypto Assets including DOGE. Nevertheless, large investors have not completely withdrawn from the market, and if the macro environment warms up, DOGE is expected to attract more buying power to push prices back upward after holding the support at $0.19.

It is worth noting that DOGE reached a five-month high of $0.28 in July, before falling nearly 30%. Currently, the $0.19~$0.20 range has become the focal point for bulls and bears; whether it can serve as a rebound springboard or will further decline will depend on the trading volume and market sentiment changes in the coming days.

Conclusion

The short-term rebound momentum of DOGE is gradually strengthening, with the resistance level of 0.21 USD becoming the key for bulls to reverse the downtrend. Although the derivatives market and the behavior of large holders have not fully aligned yet, as long as the macro environment improves and technical indicators break through simultaneously, DOGE is expected to welcome a new wave of rebound. Investors are advised to closely monitor the tug-of-war in the range of 0.18~0.21 USD, flexibly adjust their operational strategies, and seize potential opportunities.