New predictions show that Bitcoin could exceed 4.81 million USD by 2036.

A new study from Satoshi Action Education predicts a 75% chance that Bitcoin (BTC) will exceed 4.81 million USD by April 2036.

Research led by economist Murray A. Rudd uses an updated probability model to assess the impact of limited supply and demand from institutional investors on the long-term value of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Supply and Price Scenario

The results indicate a 75% chance that BTC will surpass 4.81 million USD by April 2036. There is a 25% probability that it could reach up to 10.22 million USD, even fluctuating between 11.89 – 14.76 million USD, depending on the simulation parameters. In the most optimistic scenario with a 1% rate, the price could hit 50 million USD. The average forecast is in the range of 6.55 – 6.96 million USD.

BTC price simulation according to Monte Carlo simulation 1 with an end date of April 16, 2036. The supply is limited to 21 million BTC, with the actual circulating Bitcoin (liquid float) estimated to be only about 3 million BTC. Factors such as long-term storage, corporate collateral, DeFi activities, and Layer 2 networks are expected to continue to reduce the trading supply.

In the basic scenarios, the average liquidity supply in April 2036 is only about 6.55 – 6.96 million BTC, helping to curb overly extreme forecasts.

Stress-path simulations show that continuous withdrawals of BTC from exchanges could accelerate scarcity. If the circulating supply falls below 2 million BTC and sensitivity narrows, prices could skyrocket. In the worst-case scenario, the liquid supply could drop below 2 million BTC by 01/19/2026 and below 1 million BTC by 12/07/2027.

Compared to the report in January, the new model forecasts significantly higher prices due to more cautious assumptions about acceptance and liquidity. The main reason is a stronger supply-demand imbalance after 2026, coupled with restrictive structures that reduce available supply. The model also takes into account the accumulation habits of investment institutions, which typically reduce buying power when prices rise sharply and increase buying when market conditions stabilize.

The research emphasizes that investors' awareness of liquidity risk will be very important as the level of acceptance of Bitcoin increases. The gap between scarcity – a factor that creates sustainable growth momentum – and the state of diminishing instability – which can cause strong volatility – is quite fragile.

Implications for Investment Strategy

The research results show that for long-term investors, the "right tail" of the steep chart supports a strategy that leverages strong growth potential but still requires liquidity risk management.

Regarding policy, pressure from limited supply may force regulators to reconsider issues of custodial concentration and cross-border capital flow, especially as corporate treasuries, national reserve funds, and tokenization projects increase demand.

By combining the acceptance curve at the macro level with liquidity events at the micro level, the Monte Carlo analysis framework and the Epstein–Zin model provide a more comprehensive view compared to simple forecasting indicators.

Many binding factors are integrated to simulate how the price of Bitcoin may develop under different market conditions and policies.

Bitcoin has entered unexplored price territory on Thursday, surpassing the $124,000 level to establish a new ATH.

After a nearly 8% increase over the week, the price has adjusted to below $119,000 as the PPI indicator from the United States is too hot. However, analysts point out the convergence of bullish on-chain signals, indicating that the upward momentum may continue.

Vincent