Bitcoin and the Cycle Change: When "Halving" is No Longer a Golden Signal for Price Rise

For more than a decade, Bitcoin's halving event has always been regarded by traders as a "golden" signal indicating that a strong bullish trend is about to come. However, this cycle was officially broken in 2024 when the price of Bitcoin peaked before the halving – for the first time in history. Derivatives trading experts believe that the bullish trend before halving may become a "familiar scenario" for subsequent cycles. The reason lies not only in the technical factors of the network but also in the structural changes in the market as Bitcoin has deeply integrated into the traditional financial system. The 4-Year Cycle and the Decline of a "Rule" Since its inception in 2008, Bitcoin operates on the scarcity principle of Satoshi Nakamoto, with a mechanism that halves the block reward every 4 years – also known as halving. In previous cycles, such as 2016 and 2020, the price of Bitcoin often peaked a few months after the halving, when the supply shock actually occurred. The common strategy for investors at that time was to "buy the dip" during the bear market and wait for the breakout after the halving. But the year 2024 saw a completely different scenario: Bitcoin reached a historical peak in March 2024, before the halving took place in April. Causes of Price Peaks Before the 2024 Halving Unlike previous times, this bullish trend is not driven by the FOMO wave from retail investors, but rather it is led by a supply shock from a group of new investors – large financial institutions. According to Gordon Grant, former CEO at Genesis and cryptocurrency derivatives expert, these are the "top-tier allocators" – including institutional investment funds, treasuries of listed corporations, and long-term funds. Their difference: No short-term trading. Don't wait for the price to drop significantly before buying. They are accumulating Bitcoin at high prices, with a long-term outlook. Some businesses even raise capital through issuing stocks, convertible bonds... just to increase their Bitcoin holdings. The goal of this group is to accumulate as quickly as possible, viewing Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset rather than a short-term speculative tool. The emergence of this massive influx of capital has driven the price to record levels even before the supply reduction. Halving Losing Its Appeal Like a "Catalyst" In the past, halving was a strong psychological factor for investors, as they expected the supply shock to drive prices up. But now, institutional investors have taken a step ahead – they understand the supply-demand story and accumulate before the event. Grant commented: "Like many other alpha signals, the halving has been 'priced in' by the market and the surprise effect is no longer there." Joshua Lim, Global Market Director at FalconX, also believes that Bitcoin is now more influenced by the global liquidity cycle than by the halving cycle. Bitcoin – From Independent Asset to Macro Indicator The participation of institutional capital has transformed Bitcoin from a non-correlated asset into a part of the global financial market. Nowadays, Bitcoin is compared more to gold, reflecting global liquidity trends and the strength of the USD. Price volatility is influenced by central bank interest rates, inflation, international capital flows, and other macroeconomic factors. The risk and return profile of Bitcoin is beginning to co-move with other major asset classes such as AI technology, energy, fintech, or growth stock groups. This marks a turning point: Bitcoin no longer moves independently according to its internal cycles, but resonates with the "flow" of the global financial system. Investment Strategy in the New Era According to Grant and Lim, the halving cycle is not completely "dead", but has transformed into a more complex phenomenon, primarily influenced by institutional buying power and the macroeconomic context. This means: Investors cannot rely solely on the "4-year rule". Factors such as the Fed's monetary policy, inflation data, and global liquidity will carry more weight in the analysis. Long-term strategies need to adapt to the reality that Bitcoin has become an official macro asset. Conclusion The 2024 event is not just a small deviation in history, but it could be the beginning of a new cycle – where Bitcoin is valued as a global strategic asset. Investors, whether individuals or institutions, must change their perspectives and analytical tools if they want to keep up with the new heartbeat of the market.