Bitcoin Adjusts Below 120,000 USD: Signals From Long-Term Investor Behavior

After setting a new peak above 124,000 USD last week, Bitcoin (BTC) has recorded a correction and is currently trading around 115,557 USD, down 2.5% in the past 24 hours and nearly 7% from the most recent peak. This movement indicates that the market is entering an accumulation phase and short term adjustment, as investors watch for the next signal regarding the trend. On-chain Data: Long-Term Holders Start Taking Profits According to the analysis by PelinayPA, a contributor at CryptoQuant's QuickTake platform, indicators related to the behavior of long-term investors (LTH) are becoming the focal point for predicting Bitcoin's price trajectory. The analysis toolkit focuses on the relationship between BTC price and the average cost price of holders, through profit/loss bands ( in the range of 150% to 1,000% on the cost price. As BTC approaches the +500% range, history has witnessed strong selling activity, signaling that the bullish cycle is about to peak. Additionally, the Spending Binary Indicator is used to measure the selling intensity of LTH. "High Spending" signals often appear at market peaks, while "Bottom Alerts" appear at the deep bottoms of corrections. In previous cycles: In 2017 and 2021, the cycle peaks were often associated with a strong sell-off by LTH. During the 2022–2023 period, bottom warnings continuously emerged around the 15,000 – 20,000 USD range, coinciding with the accumulation phase creating the bottom. Currently, Bitcoin is in the profit range of 150% – 350%, which means there is still growth potential before reaching the higher risk threshold. Although profit-taking has occurred, the level is still much lower than during previous cycle peak phases. Bitcoin Market Outlook short term BTC has the potential to maintain in the sideways range, as controlled profit-taking from LTH reduces the momentum for a strong breakout. Medium Term )To the End of 2025( If demand continues to be maintained and the accumulation phase is reinforced, the price could head towards the range of 124,000 – 178,000 USD, corresponding to higher profit levels in the LTH model. However, if LTH selling activity increases sharply like in 2021, Bitcoin may enter a peak cycle phase, with the possibility of exceeding 150,000 USD before a deep correction. Long Term )2026 Onward( The absence of additional "Bottom Alerts" signals that the market is still operating in the final phase of the uptrend cycle, rather than transitioning into a bear market. This means that growth potential still exists, but the level of risk is gradually increasing as prices approach historical high thresholds. 👉 Conclusion Bitcoin is currently in a healthy correction phase after reaching a new peak, with on-chain signals indicating that the bullish cycle has not yet ended. However, investors need to closely monitor the selling activity of long-term investors )LTH(, as this will be a deciding factor on whether the market can advance to the 150,000 – 178,000 USD range or is preparing to enter a new major correction cycle.