Macroeconomic risks are decreasing, the crypto market is迎来multiple favourable information, BTC is fluctuating at a high level while ETH follows with a pump.

Macroeconomic risks decrease, market sentiment significantly improves

The global geopolitical situation is easing, expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates are rising, and the Nasdaq index has reached a new high.

The inflow of funds is strong and expected to continue

This week, cryptocurrency ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.7 billion, the issuance of stablecoins accelerated, and the USDT premium rate is on the rise.

Mainstream cryptocurrencies are performing strongly, with Bitcoin consolidating at high levels and Ethereum following suit with an increase

Bitcoin maintains a strong oscillation at a high level, Ethereum follows with an upward trend but with slightly weaker momentum, and cryptocurrency-related stocks are generally performing well.

Liquidity marginal improvement for small-cap tokens, but upward movement is hindered

The TOTAL2 index rebounded and then fell back, the market share of OTHERS has stopped declining and stabilized, and the on-chain activity indicator is at 53, still not out of the weak range.

The market is currently in the final stage of consolidation, and in the short term, we need to wait for a capital breakthrough to cooperate, focusing on the structural strengthening of small-cap tokens and the signs of capital inflow into mainstream coins.

1. Macroeconomic and Market Environment

• In the second half of 2025, the growth rate of the US economy is expected to shift from moderate to slowing, with weak retail and employment data indicating a decline in consumption and investment momentum;
• Inflation has risen slightly due to tariffs and oil prices, but remains within a controllable range;
• The uncertainty of tariff policies has decreased, tending towards a coexistence of targeted increases and exemptions.

2. Analysis of Fund Flow and Mainstream Cryptocurrency Market Structure

External Capital Flow

• ETF Funds: This week saw an inflow of $1.7 billion, with a significant increase in the scale of inflows.
• Stablecoins: This week, an increase of 1.8 billion USD was issued, with an average of 263 million USD per day, which is at a high level.

Market Sentiment Indicator

• OTC Premium: The premium rate of stablecoins continues to rise.

Bitcoin (BTC)

• Technical Analysis: Strong fluctuations around 106,000 USD
• On-chain chip distribution: Little change compared to last week, with 103,000 USD being a strong short-term support level.

Ethereum (ETH)

• Relative to Bitcoin Trends: The ETH/BTC ratio remains volatile, with funds preferentially flowing into Bitcoin.
• On-chain changes: The number of active addresses has increased, and market sentiment is warming up.

Macroeconomic Review

Economy: Moderate Growth Accompanied by Weakening Risks

The U.S. economy remains resilient at present, but potential signs of weakness cannot be ignored. Employment data shows that non-farm payrolls increased by 100,000 to 150,000 in the last two months, better than expected, and the unemployment rate remains low at 4.2%, indicating an overall robust labor market. However, non-farm payroll data has been continuously revised downwards, and the number of initial and continuing unemployment claims has surpassed the upper limit of the range, with layoffs remaining at a near-high level, suggesting concerns about a weakening job market. Consumption data reflects a polarized trend: service consumption maintains momentum, with real personal consumption expenditures increasing by 0.3% month-on-month; however, goods consumption is weak, with May's retail sales month-on-month growth rate dramatically turning negative to -0.9%, mainly due to weakened demand for bulk commodities like automobiles and building materials after a pre-tariff buying spree subsided. Overall, the U.S. economy is expected to slow down in the second half of the year, with rising risks of slowing growth.

Tariffs: Reduced uncertainty, more targeted policies

The uncertainty of tariff policies is gradually decreasing. After the expiration of the reciprocal tariff exemption on July 9, the government released more details, indicating a policy inclination towards conditional increases rather than comprehensive pressure. The likelihood of extending reciprocal tariff exemptions is high, avoiding direct increases in high rates; industrial tariffs are not applied comprehensively, for example, products not related to steel and aluminum can be exempt from 50% of high tariffs, only subject to a 10% reciprocal tariff, and the tax-free channel under the North American Free Trade Agreement remains. Semiconductor tariffs may adopt a similar model, balancing increases and exemptions. Overall, the impact of tariffs is becoming more controllable, with limited shocks to the economy and inflation.

Neutral Interest Rate

Currently, the market forecasts a 25 basis point rate cut on September 17, 2025, with a total of 3 rate cuts in 2025 to 3.75%, and a neutral interest rate dropping to 3.25%. Whether to start cutting rates early in July is currently the focus of the game between the Federal Reserve and the government, and the deadline for tariffs has been extended by another 90 days, which has become a long-term game. The economic slowdown brought about by tariffs is beginning to slowly manifest, while the Federal Reserve continues to reduce its balance sheet by $95 billion in the 25th week, recently continuing to reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds to tighten liquidity, leading to bullish fluctuations in Bitcoin against the M2 benchmark over the past period.

Impact of Important Events Next Week

In the coming week, several important economic data will be released, including GDP, PCE price index, ISM manufacturing PMI, etc. This data will provide important references for judging economic trends and policy directions.

2. On-chain Data Analysis

1. Short-term data changes affecting the market this week

1.1 Stablecoin Fund Flow Situation

This week (6/21-6/27), the issuance of stablecoins increased from $836 million last week to $1.839 billion, a growth of 119% week-on-week. The average daily issuance rose from $119 million to $263 million, indicating a significant acceleration in the issuance speed of stablecoins this week. From a trend perspective, the issuance of stablecoins has shown a continuous acceleration throughout the week, corroborated by Bitcoin's price rebounding continuously after bottoming out at the beginning of the week. Currently, Bitcoin's price has once again reached the previous high point area, and whether it can continue to break through will depend on whether the issuance of stablecoins can maintain this accelerated trend next week.

1.2 ETF Fund Flow Situation

This week (6/21-6/27), Bitcoin ETFs still showed a net inflow status overall, with a net inflow amount of $1.721 billion, an increase of $380 million compared to last week. Despite Bitcoin's price dropping to a recent low last weekend, the inflow volume of ETFs remained strong after the market opened on Monday, reflecting institutional and U.S. investors' long-term optimism towards Bitcoin. In recent weeks, the inflow volume of ETFs has shown a continuous growth trend, and if it can be sustained, it will further support Bitcoin's price and market sentiment, aiding in a breakthrough.

1.3 OTC Premium/Discount

This week (6/21-6/27), the premium rate of USDT and USDC in the OTC market showed a similar trend to last week, accelerating to around 100% at the beginning of the week before a slight pullback, reflecting a peak of capital inflow in the OTC market at the beginning of the week. This trend may be related to the recent fluctuations or downward trends in the overall market; whenever the market approaches the lower boundary or slightly breaks below it, capital from the OTC market tends to flow back for bottom-fishing, pushing up the premium rate. Overall, the trend of the premium rate has shifted from slightly downward to horizontal fluctuations, but there is still no sign of the slight premium typical of a bull market phase, and the overall market sentiment remains cautious.

1.4 Bitcoin Exchange Balance

In the past year, the balance of Bitcoin exchanges has been inversely proportional to its price; when the balance drops, the price rises, when it consolidates, the price fluctuates at high levels, and when it slightly increases, the price falls. This week, the exchange balance is still in a smooth downward trend, which is conducive to maintaining the bullish momentum of Bitcoin.

1.5 Holdings of Long-term and Short-term Holders

On-chain data from the BTC chain shows that changes occurred this week. The holdings of long-term holders slightly declined after reaching a peak of 14.705 million coins on June 22, while the holdings of short-term holders began to rise after hitting a low of 2.249 million coins on the same day. This indicates that the recent rebound in Bitcoin this week was mainly driven by short-term holders, and there is a need to be cautious about the risk of a pullback as the rebound may end. The long-term price stability and increase of Bitcoin mainly rely on the continuous accumulation by long-term holders, so attention should be paid to when the turning point of long-term holdings' decline appears.

2. Mid-term data changes affecting the market this week

2.1 Coin Holding Address Holding Ratio and URPD

From the perspective of the coin holding ratio of wallet addresses, the proportion of addresses holding 100-1000 coins remains on the rise and continues to set new highs this week. The proportion of addresses holding 10,000-100,000 coins has slightly retreated, while the proportion of addresses holding 1,000-10,000 coins has fluctuated slightly. Overall, addresses holding 100-1000 coins are still absorbing the selling pressure from large holders.

In terms of URPD, this week the BTC chip concentration area has not changed much, with support levels at the ranges of $93,000-$98,000 and $100,500-$105,000.