2025 Crypto Market Outlook: Four Major Scenarios and Eleven Predictions

Since 2024, the crypto market has experienced a new bull market cycle. From the launch of the Bitcoin ETF on January 10 to Bitcoin reaching an all-time high, it subsequently drove altcoin market trends, entering the volatile second and third quarters of 2024. After Bitcoin broke through $50,000 and $60,000, it is currently hovering around $90,000.

It is worth noting that altcoin trends often begin when Bitcoin reaches its peak. The first round is when Bitcoin approaches $69,000 but fails to break through, and the next round is moving towards $100,000.

The next round of altcoin market trends is expected to emerge when Bitcoin stabilizes at $100,000, likely to happen in the first quarter of 2025. However, there may also be a repeat of the situation in the second and third quarters of 2024 in the coming months. Here are four possible scenarios:

1. Bitcoin and altcoins are generally rising. The market continues to rise in 2025, entering a new round of altcoin market, with all tokens performing well, repeating the situation of the past two months with a 30-40% possibility.

2. Bitcoin is rising, and a few altcoins are rising as well. Similar to the situation in 2024, the market will fluctuate in the coming months, but overall it is more bullish than in 2024 with a 50-60% possibility.

3. Bitcoin rises, altcoins generally fall with a possibility of 20-30%.

4. Bitcoin and altcoins have generally declined, the market has reached its peak with a likelihood of 10-20%.

Due to favorable macroeconomic conditions, the new historical high for Bitcoin may not take as long to break as it did in 2024. The recent change in government has brought new attention to the digital asset space, and the new president's frequent discussions about Bitcoin have made it easier to persuade people to buy Bitcoin.

This regime change is extremely important. Therefore, it is expected that Bitcoin will continue to maintain strong momentum in 2025. The situation is similar for altcoins, but slightly different.

The key lies in positioning and timing. Although we are optimistic about 2025, the time required for the rise is still uncertain. The rise in 2025 may come earlier than in 2024, but during periods lacking catalysts, altcoins may still experience significant declines.

As long as the market cycle has not ended, one should maintain a bullish attitude towards Bitcoin and altcoins. It is unlikely that the situation of the summer of 2024 will occur again in 2025, although a similar stable period as now may be encountered, but the prices will still remain at a good level.

The situation on-chain is different; during market downturns, it is easy to see a decline of 70%. It is expected that altcoins have not peaked at this time, as it is hard to imagine how Bitcoin can continue to rise when altcoins are experiencing a "death," and it is also hard to believe that Bitcoin has peaked at this moment.

Conclusion:

• Bitcoin rises, with an increase exceeding 2024.
• Altcoins overall are rising, although there are some declines, but the intensity is not as strong as in 2024.

Main Risks

1. Cycle top: Currently far from being reached, but needs continuous reassessment.

2. Bitcoin reserve plan: If the new president ignores the reserve plan, it will be a pessimistic signal.

3. Supply Risk: The risk of large Bitcoin holders selling off always exists.

4. Macroeconomic risk: The resurgence of inflation may lead to interest rate hikes.

Token Categories Worth Paying Attention To

1. AI-related: preferred application technologies, Swarms, gaming, and consumer AI.

2. DeFi: Difficult to choose, the risk-reward ratio is not high.

3. Layer 1 public chains: may make a comeback, such as SUI and Hype.

4. NFT and game tokens: NFT tokens may make a comeback.

5. Other narratives: data tokens, Meme, DePIN, Ordinals, etc.

2025 Predictions in 11 Items

1. A certain company will implement DePIN in a certain way.
2. A certain trading platform will lose its status as the largest exchange.
3. Metaverse tokens are gaining new life with the advancement of VR.
4. ICOs are rising again.
5. There will be no altcoin market on the Ethereum chain.
6. SUI reaches double-digit price.
7. Ethereum ETF staking approved.
8. Famous artists use NFTs and tokens to maintain their fans.
9. Bitcoin reached $200,000.
10. More Layer 1 public chain executives have resigned.
11. A certain Layer 1 public chain wins in the competition with Base, and Solana maintains its advantage.