Alts market falls into a winter, investors seek breakthroughs

Since the beginning of this year, the cryptocurrency market has shown overall weak performance, with alts on exchanges struggling to gain momentum, and even the on-chain tokens that performed well in the fourth quarter of last year have experienced significant declines.

Taking AI-related tokens as an example, the main tokens have seen the following declines this year:

• Virtual：-79.2%
• Ai16z：-85.5%
• AIXBT：-68%
• Griffain: -80.3%
• Buzz：-72.4%
• Fartcoin：-67.5%
• ARC: -62%
• Swarms：-45%

In less than three months, these once-popular projects have generally dropped by over 60%. Although it cannot yet be determined that the AI sector has failed, the market's attention to it has indeed significantly decreased, making recovery difficult in the short term.

The celebrity coin space has also faced a Waterloo. Since Trump started this trend, various celebrities have followed suit by launching tokens. However, the decline of these tokens has been even more severe:

• Trump：-77.1%
• Melania：-91%
• Vine: -92.7%
• jailstool：-93.5%
• Jellyjelly: -98%
• CAR：-98.5%
• Libra：-94.3%

The crypto market is often said to "favor new over old," meaning that funds always chase the latest concepts. However, compared to AI tokens, the decline in celebrity coins has been even more severe. So, what issues are these two sectors currently facing? In the absence of new concepts, is there still a breakthrough point in the market?

Current Narrative Dilemma: Concept Hype Prevails, Lacking Substantial Content

The main issue in the AI token sector is that most projects are still stuck in the concept demonstration and future planning stages, lacking usable products that can be widely promoted. Even when some projects launch operational services, they often have problems such as complex interfaces and poor user experience, making it difficult to attract ordinary investors for long-term participation. Worse still, some project teams exaggerate their promotions to cater to investors' expectations, but the actual implementation keeps being delayed. Over time, funds lose patience, attention shifts, leading to a significant drop in token prices.

The celebrity coin track is facing the dilemma of "celebrity effect decay." Trump is undoubtedly a highly topical start, but it is then difficult to find public figures who can compete with him. Other politicians, internet celebrities, and stars have followed suit, but they cannot replicate the initial funding heat and market sentiment. As the enthusiasm declines, the celebrity coin track shows a fleeting trend, investor confidence quickly evaporates, and prices plummet.

The fundamental reason these tracks are experiencing significant fluctuations is that most projects remain at the level of hype concepts, lacking a real and sustainable revenue model. Whether it's AI tokens or celebrity coins, their core narrative relies on the rapid influx of capital and popularity, yet lacks the incentive for users to participate in the long term. Once the hype fades, the prices struggle to hold up and cannot attract new funds to enter.

Finding Real Yield Projects as a Breakthrough

In the current market environment with a weak narrative, the key to standing out is to find projects with "real returns" that are "willing to share with users." "Real returns" refer not just to the short-term gains from being listed on an exchange, but to the ability to continuously generate returns through actual business models and trading activities, and to feedback these returns to token holders or ecosystem participants.

Taking a certain decentralized derivatives trading platform as an example, its business model is similar to that of centralized exchanges, with the main revenue coming from contract trading fees. The platform uses all fee income to buy back platform tokens, tightly binding the coin price with the products. According to data, the platform accounts for about 45% of the total trading volume of all perpetual contract DEXs in 24 hours, with an average daily trading volume of $3.78 billion and a daily income of about $1 million. Even during the current market downturn, the platform still maintains a high level of activity, and its token price remains relatively stable.

No matter how popular a concept is, it will eventually lose its luster. What can survive in the crypto market for the long term are those projects that find product-market fit, have high user stickiness, and real returns. Investors should pay more attention to the actual value of the projects and their long-term development potential, rather than blindly following short-term speculation.