The Importance and Impact Analysis of Crypto Assets in the 2024 US Election

Since its inception, Bitcoin has gone through three election cycles and has become one of the key issues in the 2024 U.S. elections. This article analyzes the multiple factors contributing to the increasing importance of Crypto Assets in elections, discusses the candidates' policy positions, and predicts the potential impact of the election results on the Crypto Assets industry.

Crypto Assets have become an important electoral issue background.

The significance of Bitcoin to the United States

The demand for hedging against inflation has increased.

The real wage levels in the United States have stagnated for a long time, and the wealth gap continues to widen. Bitcoin is seen as a potential tool to combat inflation and economic uncertainty, especially providing hope for the middle class to achieve economic independence. Regardless of which candidate is elected in the future, the fiscal deficit and debt burden in the United States may further intensify, increasing the risk of turmoil in the financial markets.

Strengthen the international influence of the US dollar

Stablecoins have become the focal point of policy discussions, being considered as a means to reinforce the global position of the dollar. Currently, over 99% of stablecoins are denominated in dollars, and stablecoins have become one of the major holders of U.S. Treasury bonds. This not only helps to enhance the global dominance of the dollar but also provides additional liquidity support to the U.S. financial system.

Voter interest in encryption is rising.

Surveys show that about half of potential voters in the United States tend to support candidates who hold a positive attitude towards Crypto Assets. The attention of key swing state voters towards Crypto Assets has also significantly increased.

The Biden administration's regulatory hunting of Crypto Assets companies

The Biden administration has strengthened its regulatory efforts on the Crypto Assets industry since taking office, filing lawsuits against several large Crypto Assets companies, which has sparked discontent within the industry.

Encryption enterprises play a core role in donations.

Crypto Assets companies have become one of the major forces in political donations in the United States. Fairshake Super Political Action Committee (PAC ) has raised significant funds to support crypto-friendly candidates, significantly influencing some election outcomes.

The Impact of the Election

The policy propositions of both candidates

Harris

Harris's stance on encryption policy is relatively limited, stating only that she will "encourage innovative technology while protecting consumers and investors." Her recently launched economic security plan includes the establishment of a regulatory framework for Crypto Assets, but lacks specific details.

Trump

Trump has shown a positive attitude towards the crypto assets industry, promising to make the United States the "capital of global crypto assets and Bitcoin". He proposed specific policy suggestions such as establishing a Bitcoin government reserve and forming a crypto assets advisory committee.

The possibility of "divided government"

It seems that a "divided government" scenario is highly likely to occur, which could lead to a policy deadlock. If the Republican Party wins comprehensively, it is expected to pass new legislation in the short term, which would be a favorable outcome for the Crypto Assets market.

The SEC leadership is likely to change.

Regardless of which candidate is elected, there may be significant changes in the leadership of the SEC, which could affect future Crypto Assets regulatory policies.

Macroeconomic liquidity: volatility is inevitable, the degree of QE is the determining factor.

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy has a significant impact on the crypto market. Trump has promised to significantly lower interest rates if elected again, which could drive up cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

The Impact of Elections on Crypto Startups

The Rise of Web3 Prediction Markets

Prediction market platforms like Polymarket have garnered widespread attention in this election, showcasing the potential of Web3 applications to surpass Web2 competitors. Prediction markets are gradually becoming a more widespread financial tool, with their influence extending into various fields such as public opinion, financial hedging, and business decision-making.

The opportunities for encryption companies to be incubated and listed in the United States have increased.

If Trump wins the election, a clearer regulatory framework and a more lenient regulatory environment are expected to emerge, which may encourage more Crypto Assets companies to incubate and go public in the United States.

DeFi and BTCFi will be the first to benefit.

Trump has shown interest in the decentralized finance ( DeFi ) field. BTCFi, as an important branch of DeFi, may accelerate its development in a favorable external environment. It is expected that the total scale of BTCFi will exceed ten times the current market value of BTC.

With the upgrade of the Bitcoin network and the application of new technologies like OP_CAT and sCrypt, BTCFi is expected to achieve more innovative applications and functions, further promoting the development of the industry.

Overall, the 2024 U.S. election may become a turning point for the Crypto Assets industry, shifting from strict regulation and suppression to support for innovation, and its outcome will have a profound impact on the global Crypto Assets market.