Crypto Market Analysis: Bitcoin Breaks Through $110,000 Mark, Ethereum Faces Important Resistance Level

Market Overview

Despite the U.S. extending the tariff delay until August 1st, it has again threatened to raise taxes on imported goods from major trading partners this week, leading to ongoing uncertainty regarding the final tariff levels. A UBS report indicates that the current tariffs are equivalent to a tax of 1.5% of GDP on U.S. importers, with an annual tariff revenue exceeding $300 billion. The lagging effect of these tariffs on inflation is expected to become evident in the July CPI data to be released in August. This delay is attributed to corporate inventory buffering, slow transmission of intermediate goods prices, and the bi-monthly sampling mechanism of CPI. Historical experience suggests that a 10% general tariff takes 2-3 months to fully reflect in price indices.

Regarding interest rate policy, the Federal Reserve faces a dilemma. A survey by the New York Fed shows that one-year inflation expectations have fallen to 3%, but pressures in subcategories such as medical costs and university tuition remain significant. At the same time, the labor market presents mixed signals, with concerns about unemployment easing, but the difficulty of re-employment increasing.

The Hong Kong "Stablecoin Regulation" is set to take effect in August, and the market is full of expectations for the compliance dividends brought by the clarified regulatory framework. Analysts have pointed out that the Hong Kong stock market's stablecoin concept stocks have surged recently, reflecting the strong expectations of the market for compliance dividends after the regulation takes effect in August. The regulatory framework will cover core requirements such as anti-money laundering and reserve audits, and the first batch of licenses planned to be issued within the year may reshape the competitive landscape of the industry. However, for stablecoins to disrupt the traditional payment system, they still need to overcome multiple obstacles, including the interest distribution mechanism, cross-border regulatory cooperation, and risk resilience under extreme market conditions.

Crypto Market Analysis

Bitcoin price is experiencing a key technical breakthrough and cycle validation around $110,000, with intense competition between bulls and bears. Some analysts believe that if the price cannot break through this resistance level, it may quickly retreat to $100,000; conversely, there is potential to challenge $120,000. Some optimistic predictions suggest that, based on the trend of M2 money supply, Bitcoin may rise to the range of $120,000 to $125,000 in the next phase. From a longer time horizon, based on historical halving cycle calculations, the peak of this bull market may occur between mid-September and mid-October 2025.

Regarding Ethereum, after breaking through the $2600 level, it is approaching the triangular resistance level at $2630. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in trading volume to confirm the trend. The optimistic sentiment in the market for Ethereum has also transmitted to the stocks holding related tokens, with several associated listed companies experiencing significant increases in their stock prices.

In the altcoin market, a certain DEX announced the migration of trading on Arbitrum to other networks and the gradual phasing out of the native coin, resulting in a 60% drop in the coin's value within 24 hours. Although the competition for MEME coins in the Solana ecosystem remains intense, the related coins have experienced a pullback of over 30%, and the market currently lacks a sustainable new narrative.

Key Data

• Bitcoin price: $108,513 (Year-to-date +15.99%), daily trading volume $21.324 billion
• Ethereum price: $2,600.10 (Year-to-date -22.06%), daily trading volume $15.521 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 67 (Greed)
• Market share: Bitcoin 64.2%, Ethereum 9.3%
• 24-hour liquidation data: 59,563 people globally liquidated, totaling 121 million USD.

ETF Fund Flows

• Bitcoin ETF: +$80.08 million, net inflow for 4 consecutive days
• Ethereum ETF: +$46.6308 million, net inflow for 3 consecutive days

Market Highlights

• A well-known investment institution has liquidated its COMP holdings and transferred 400,000 COMP to the trading platform.
• The world's largest stablecoin issuer holds $8 billion worth of gold in a secret vault in Switzerland.
• World Gold Council report: Global gold ETFs increased by $38 billion in the first half of the year, with daily trading volume hitting a half-year record.
• Multiple listed companies increase their holdings in Ethereum or initiate Bitcoin reserve plans
• A listed company in Hong Kong saw its stock price surge due to news of stablecoin collaboration.
• "Yiwu merchants start accepting stablecoins" tops the search hot list.

The cryptocurrency market is at a critical moment, and investors should closely monitor technological breakthroughs, changes in regulatory policies, and the flow of institutional funds to make informed investment decisions.